• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Phil Spencer confirms that some new future Bethesda titles will be Xbox and PC exclusive

Chessmate

Banned
It’s still a pretty vague way to talk about exclusivity or otherwise.

If everything coming from Bethesda was exclusive, they’d say it plain and clear.

Maybe they want to enjoy this fanboy shitshow forever? Nothing better than grumpy old farts watching how Todd Howard plays Starfield on the E3 stage. They just love it, Mass Effect meets Elder Scrolls, throws them back to an era when games would absorb you for months and months, these warm childhood memories...but they're paralyzed, the uncertainty eats them up, their kidney stones send out shockwaves through their trembling body: Can I ever play this?

Then, after 15 minutes of fear, uncertainty and doubt, Todd Howard disappears in the dark, the iconic Xbox logo lightens the stage, and a soothing voice tells you: you will never play this game.
 

longdi

Banned
Going by ALL the statements from MS, Bethesda, and Phil so far, no dreaming or port begging will be needed 😂

keep waiting then. Phil is gunning for bigger audiences. Sales are in flux and dynamic. just get a SX if you want to play next gen versions of Bethesda big guns
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
keep waiting then. Phil is gunning for bigger audiences. Sales are in flux and dynamic. just get a SX if you want to play next gen versions of Bethesda big guns
Maybe, but his recent statements do not suggest that.

When he told earlier that they would evaluate exclusivity on a case-by-case basis, everyone brushed them off that they are legally bound to not talk about it. Now after the acquisition is complete, he is saying the same thing (best/first on Xbox/PC) and "some new future games will be exclusives".

Everyone is always gunning for bigger audiences, but they are also planning to make short-term cash.
 

Kagey K

Banned
Maybe, but his recent statements do not suggest that.

When he told earlier that they would evaluate exclusivity on a case-by-case basis, everyone brushed them off that they are legally bound to not talk about it. Now after the acquisition is complete, he is saying the same thing (best/first on Xbox/PC) and "some new future games will be exclusives".

Everyone is always gunning for bigger audiences, but they are also planning to make short-term cash.
Why are they going to announce it all in a blog post only the nerds are going to read instead of at a big show that’s going to get the word out?

Did you see any games mentioned or their release dates mentioned there?

Why would they mention platforms before those items?
 
Last edited:

longdi

Banned
Maybe, but his recent statements do not suggest that.

When he told earlier that they would evaluate exclusivity on a case-by-case basis, everyone brushed them off that they are legally bound to not talk about it. Now after the acquisition is complete, he is saying the same thing (best/first on Xbox/PC) and "some new future games will be exclusives".

Everyone is always gunning for bigger audiences, but they are also planning to make short-term cash.

just get a SX and gpu, it's great value. It will serve you well for this gen. it's looking like a great system for core gamers as was the OG xbox.

No need to over analyse some things. core gamers support core system which caters to you.
 
Last edited:

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Are these two scenarios (Bethesda Games vs. PlayStation Studios games) even comparable?

Sony makes God of War to sell to PlayStation users. All cost-related and design-related decisions are made in accordance with the available user base.

With Bethesda, it is different. MS does not only have to bear the development cost of the game, but they also need to amortize the $7.5B they paid for the acquisition on top of that. Additionally, PS userbase is 3x higher than Xbox userbase. In other words, keeping games off of PS is roughly 300% more expensive for Xbox than it is for PS to keep games off of Xbox. That's why we see so many high-quality timed exclusives on PS. And that's why recovering that $7.5B acquisition money is an issue for MS -- which is why they said "some new future games will be exclusive."

In other words, Sony recovers the development cost of the game. MS needs to recover the development cost + the $7.5B acquisition cost from Bethesda games to make the investment worthwhile.

That's one way to look at it, the other would be to drive exclusivity and sales of xbox consoles by another 20 million users. They don't need the cash at all from Bethesda, but they do need to sell more consoles long term both to make xbox profitable overall, but also to drive users to gamepass. Ms does not need cash, nor does it need an immediate return from Bethesda- in that regard it would be considered a poor purchase as they were barely making any money on all platforms.

On a side note, there are actually very few aaa games that are timed elusives to sony, only a handful that Sony threw money hats at. I have no idea why you think its "so many high quality timed exclusives".
 

Shmunter

Member
No surprises, not "all", not "most". not "majority" Just "some"

The games on Gamepass day one as part of the one subscription is the attraction.

If anything, individual sales on other platforms can subsidies gamepass keeping the price as low as possible. A lower price is in itself a selling point for additional traction. The PS market is just to big to ignore, leaving money on the table while 7.5B in the red is the astute choice.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
Are these two scenarios (Bethesda Games vs. PlayStation Studios games) even comparable?

Sony makes God of War to sell to PlayStation users. All cost-related and design-related decisions are made in accordance with the available user base.

With Bethesda, it is different. MS does not only have to bear the development cost of the game, but they also need to amortize the $7.5B they paid for the acquisition on top of that. Additionally, PS userbase is 3x higher than Xbox userbase. In other words, keeping games off of PS is roughly 300% more expensive for Xbox than it is for PS to keep games off of Xbox. That's why we see so many high-quality timed exclusives on PS. And that's why recovering that $7.5B acquisition money is an issue for MS -- which is why they said "some new future games will be exclusive."

In other words, Sony recovers the development cost of the game. MS needs to recover the development cost + the $7.5B acquisition cost from Bethesda games to make the investment worthwhile.
As I said 100 times (and I will repeat for the 101st) the Xbox user base is now much higher than what the ps5 can hope to have during the entire gen. It doesn't matter how you spin it. Just steam have 120m userbase that i don't think ps5 will see this gen (coz of covid)
 

Kagey K

Banned
No surprises, not "all", not "most". not "majority" Just "some"

The games on Gamepass day one as part of the one subscription is the attraction.

If anything, individual sales on other platforms can subsidies gamepass keeping the price as low as possible. A lower price is in itself a selling point for additional traction. The PS market is just to big to ignore, leaving money on the table while 7.5B in the red is the astute choice.
As a curiosity, what do you suppose are the realistic Day 1 full price sales of a Fallout or Skyrim game on PS5 If it came out this holiday?
 

MonarchJT

Banned
Maybe, but his recent statements do not suggest that.

When he told earlier that they would evaluate exclusivity on a case-by-case basis, everyone brushed them off that they are legally bound to not talk about it. Now after the acquisition is complete, he is saying the same thing (best/first on Xbox/PC) and "some new future games will be exclusives".

Everyone is always gunning for bigger audiences, but they are also planning to make short-term cash.
For the game that will not be exclusives You can pay 70$ dollar a year later for a game that xbox user have free on gamepass the launch day. And standing by "best on xbox" probably not counting on an incredible port. This always if the game will be released on ps. Enjoy
 
Last edited:

GhostOfTsu

Banned
because we talking about future games ? you know ms will take moneys for this sold games And meanwhile the ps5 games will be able to count "only" on the console userbase which will be at most 110/120 million by the end of the gen the Xbox can virtually count 120 million (continuously growing) from day one. Obviously to these must be added the millions of consoles and all that gamepass xcloud will bring.

Sure you can add those 120 m for as user reach for days gone and horizon. Look, that's it, it's not some sort of meme, If PlayStation released all its games on pc it would have an unparalleled user base imagine how much God of war spiderman and uncharted could sell. But for them it is more complicated because for them the console is still important and releasing everything on the PC would weaken it a lot (which Ms was able to do lightly since anyway Windows it's their property)
For Sony, you only count the actual consoles but for MS you count everything, every service, every device, even storefronts on Windows to inflate the numbers even more. What a reach lol

PS5 games will join PSNow sooner or later and PSNow is also on PC so PC + Steam 120 millions (more ports coming) + all their consoles and they basically have the same "reach" (or more since they have like 4 times consoles sold). They might even add PSNow on mobile, who knows?

well there it is! shock 🤷‍♀️

stop dreaming or port begging. get an Xbox or a new PC, and then gamepass'd it.
It's not port begging if the games are literally being developed for PS5 right now and have been for years.
 

Kagey K

Banned
For Sony, you only count the actual consoles but for MS you count everything, every service, every device, even storefronts on Windows to inflate the numbers even more. What a reach lol

PS5 games will join PSNow sooner or later and PSNow is also on PC so PC + Steam 120 millions (more ports coming) + all their consoles and they basically have the same "reach" (or more since they have like 4 times consoles sold). They might even add PSNow on mobile, who knows?


It's not port begging if the games are literally being developed for PS5 right now and have been for years.
If we count them both they are right around 5 million each. It’s not 120 to 50. It’s 5 vs 5.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
For Sony, you only count the actual consoles but for MS you count everything, every service, every device, even storefronts on Windows to inflate the numbers even more. What a reach lol

PS5 games will join PSNow sooner or later and PSNow is also on PC so PC + Steam 120 millions (more ports coming) + all their consoles and they basically have the same "reach" (or more since they have like 4 times consoles sold). They might even add PSNow on mobile, who knows?


It's not port begging if the games are literally being developed for PS5 right now and have been for years.
a part from old games previous acquisition list me those "games"
psnow have 2.2m users just don't be ridiculous. I told you Days gone and Horizon see the 120m userbase of pc. If Sony release everything on pc they'll have the best userbase . As right xbox is lot bigger . period
Next god of war will see 10/20 m users rea ch....next Halo will see 130m/140m users reach
 
Last edited:

Shmunter

Member
As a curiosity, what do you suppose are the realistic Day 1 full price sales of a Fallout or Skyrim game on PS5 If it came out this holiday?
Don’t know, my interest in the franchise is relatively casual, only ever played Fallout 3 on 360 despite owning the new ones on PS4.

I realise they are popular to many. What sales do you think?
 

Kagey K

Banned
Don’t know, my interest in the franchise is relatively casual, only ever played Fallout 3 on 360 despite owning the new ones on PS4.

I realise they are popular to many. What sales do you think?
Let’s say 1/10 similar to what Sony first party games do. (probably high)

Fair?

Its pretty simple how many PS5 and Xbox do you think will be out there this holiday season and how many are going to buy this one game.
 
Last edited:

Shubh_C63

Member
If MS is seeing things on case to case basis then I doubt MS can do any wrong this time.

No where but up. Xbox has lived on only few blockbusters titles before, and with Bethesda titles it just got a whole lot stronger.
 

Shmunter

Member
Let’s say 1/10 similar to what Sony first party games do. (probably high)

Fair?

Its pretty simple how many PS5 and Xbox do you think will be out there this holiday season and how many are going to buy this one game.
10% sounds pretty low for a big titles like this, is it based on historical sales?

I imagine MS will force these games to be cross gen to facilitate wider reach off gamepass.
 

cHaOs667

Member
At least I imagine that every future title, playing on other consoles/platforms than the X-Box, will receive a "Plays best on Game Pass" greeting message... "pie_tears_joy:

Sorry, couldn't resist...
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
For the game that will not be exclusives You can pay 70$ dollar a year later for a game that xbox user have free on gamepass the launch day. And standing by "best on xbox" probably not counting on an incredible port. This always if the game will be released on ps. Enjoy
Exactly. I've been saying exactly this, and this is what MS will likely do with "most" games (not all, as some will definitely be pure exclusives). And that + free DLCs or exclusive expansion packs will ensure that the "best" version will be on XBox.

And not sure what the "enjoy" in the end means, but sure ... yeah, I will "enjoy" these games if they are good.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
As I said 100 times (and I will repeat for the 101st) the Xbox user base is now much higher than what the ps5 can hope to have during the entire gen. It doesn't matter how you spin it. Just steam have 120m userbase that i don't think ps5 will see this gen (coz of covid)
Umm, no. This is literally incorrect.

Waiting for receipts and credible numbers.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Different moments in MS history and different situations entirely. MS needs to buff Xbox Game Pass and they'll be better just making games exclusives, specially the biggest ones like TES


History? Microsoft released Minecraft Dungeons last year.

Come On What GIF by MOODMAN
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
That's one way to look at it, the other would be to drive exclusivity and sales of xbox consoles by another 20 million users. They don't need the cash at all from Bethesda, but they do need to sell more consoles long term both to make xbox profitable overall, but also to drive users to gamepass. Ms does not need cash, nor does it need an immediate return from Bethesda- in that regard it would be considered a poor purchase as they were barely making any money on all platforms.

On a side note, there are actually very few aaa games that are timed elusives to sony, only a handful that Sony threw money hats at. I have no idea why you think its "so many high quality timed exclusives".
Final Fantasy VII Remake, Final Fantasy XVI, Call of Duty Spec Ops mode, Call of Duty Zombie Mode, Kena, Deathloop, Little Devil Inside, Ghostwire Tokyo, and so many more.

In comparison, you can see the games that Xbox gets as timed-exclusives. That's the point I was making: it's harder (more expensive) for Xbox to do that vs. for Sony to do that.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
just get a SX and gpu, it's great value. It will serve you well for this gen. it's looking like a great system for core gamers as was the OG xbox.

No need to over analyse some things. core gamers support core system which caters to you.
I will, for sure, as soon as the games drop. I'm excited for Hellblade 2 and Avowed (although we haven't seen much).

I think many people misunderstand my comments here. I always kept the stance that some of these games will be exclusive, while some won't. Having said that, I've on record said that even if these Bethesda games are available on PlayStation, I'll still play them on XSX, because of Gamepass (why would I buy each game for $70).
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Are these two scenarios (Bethesda Games vs. PlayStation Studios games) even comparable?

Sony makes God of War to sell to PlayStation users. All cost-related and design-related decisions are made in accordance with the available user base.

With Bethesda, it is different. MS does not only have to bear the development cost of the game, but they also need to amortize the $7.5B they paid for the acquisition on top of that. Additionally, PS userbase is 3x higher than Xbox userbase. In other words, keeping games off of PS is roughly 300% more expensive for Xbox than it is for PS to keep games off of Xbox. That's why we see so many high-quality timed exclusives on PS. And that's why recovering that $7.5B acquisition money is an issue for MS -- which is why they said "some new future games will be exclusive."

In other words, Sony recovers the development cost of the game. MS needs to recover the development cost + the $7.5B acquisition cost from Bethesda games to make the investment worthwhile.
You don't amortize a company bought out. It's not a piece of machinery with a 10 year life span.

As for recovering the $7.5B cost to buy Zenimax, it wildly depends what MS's goals are from having them and the expected value of Zenimax later on because studios have holding value. The better the studio, the higher the value. 10 years from now MS might sell Zenimax off to someone for $10B.

As for MS having an issue recovering money to pay off the $7.5B, there is no issue. They paid cash. The company is on track to make $60B profit per year.

I'd love to see your business analysis with MS buying Linkedin for $20B.
 
Last edited:

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Why are they going to announce it all in a blog post only the nerds are going to read instead of at a big show that’s going to get the word out?

Did you see any games mentioned or their release dates mentioned there?

Why would they mention platforms before those items?
They wouldn't even announce it on the next big show either.

Mark my words: we will be waiting for console exclusivity information for each game individually. It will be like waiting for an announcement and seeing at the end of the trailer if this particular game is exclusive or not. Moreover, even after that, we will have to see if that game comes to other platforms after 1 year.

This will never be over. MS won't make a definitive statement -- neither in a blog post nor in an E3 type event.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
You don't amortize a company bought out. It's not a piece of machinery with a 10 year life span.

As for recovering the $7.5B cost to buy Zenimax, it wildly depends what MS's goals are from having them and the expected value of Zenimax later on because studios have holding value. The better the studio, the higher the value. 10 years from now MS might sell Zenimax off to someone for $10B.

As for MS having an issue recovering money to pay off the $7.5B, there is no issue. They paid cash. The company is on track to make $60B profit per year.

I'd love to see your business analysis with MS buying Linkedin for $20B.
LinkedIn is a very different example and doesn't apply to this scenario.

I know amortization isn't the technically correct term here, but you know what I mean, right? They need to spread that acquisition cost across their Bethesda properties (in other words, it will become a part of their game development cost, in a way), which they will have to recover sooner or later. The timeframe depends on how far MS as a company is willing to give to the Xbox division.

If Gamepass subscribers grow exponentially and become super-profitable, Xbox won't feel the pressure of putting these games on other platforms, because they will be making money and recovering that Bethesda cost in the given time frame. On the other hand, if the forecasts are off, they will release a few games on other platforms like PS and NS to rake in some money and make the balance sheet look more appealing.

It's a balancing act that will be very dynamic. That's the exact reason why MS hasn't said "all games will be exclusives" or "all games will be multiplatform." As Phil said, they will evaluate it "on a case-by-case basis."
 

Outrunner

Member
I honestly don't know why anyone cares. Great for XBOX to have some exclusives, but this doesn't affect PlayStation the slightest. Sony didn't need Bethesda to ship 100M consoles in the past, they're IP are strong enough to carry them another generation. Bethesda games don't sell consoles and they needed to spread them through 4 different platforms to make profit out of them.
 

Snake29

RSI Employee of the Year
My takeaway from this thread is that all Sony fanboys own a PC gaming rig.

I've always wondered what xbox users have? Why do they suddenly like pc gamers or pc's in general? Haven't they invested in a console or platform they can play their games on? Why do they now want pc gamers to play their "games"? Do all xbox gamers also have a pc or is it just a stupid excuse to say "just buy a pc or shut up".

I think the majority of gamers with 2 platforms were probably always PS and PC. Imo the best of both worlds so it's not really strange that many PC gamers have a PS console and not an Xbox.

And yes i’m one of them.
 

Riky

$MSFT
LinkedIn is a very different example and doesn't apply to this scenario.

I know amortization isn't the technically correct term here, but you know what I mean, right? They need to spread that acquisition cost across their Bethesda properties (in other words, it will become a part of their game development cost, in a way), which they will have to recover sooner or later. The timeframe depends on how far MS as a company is willing to give to the Xbox division.

If Gamepass subscribers grow exponentially and become super-profitable, Xbox won't feel the pressure of putting these games on other platforms, because they will be making money and recovering that Bethesda cost in the given time frame. On the other hand, if the forecasts are off, they will release a few games on other platforms like PS and NS to rake in some money and make the balance sheet look more appealing.

I'd go and take a basic accounting course before posting stuff like this in public 🤣🤣
 

phil_t98

#SonyToo
I will, for sure, as soon as the games drop. I'm excited for Hellblade 2 and Avowed (although we haven't seen much).

I think many people misunderstand my comments here. I always kept the stance that some of these games will be exclusive, while some won't. Having said that, I've on record said that even if these Bethesda games are available on PlayStation, I'll still play them on XSX, because of Gamepass (why would I buy each game for $70).

And that’s what Microsoft want, you subbing to game pass , that’s what they are aiming for with this purchase of all these games. They will increase their install base this gen, sony will still sell more but Microsoft will catch up
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
LinkedIn is a very different example and doesn't apply to this scenario.

I know amortization isn't the technically correct term here, but you know what I mean, right? They need to spread that acquisition cost across their Bethesda properties (in other words, it will become a part of their game development cost, in a way), which they will have to recover sooner or later. The timeframe depends on how far MS as a company is willing to give to the Xbox division.

If Gamepass subscribers grow exponentially and become super-profitable, Xbox won't feel the pressure of putting these games on other platforms, because they will be making money and recovering that Bethesda cost in the given time frame. On the other hand, if the forecasts are off, they will release a few games on other platforms like PS and NS to rake in some money and make the balance sheet look more appealing.

It's a balancing act that will be very dynamic. That's the exact reason why MS hasn't said "all games will be exclusives" or "all games will be multiplatform." As Phil said, they will evaluate it "on a case-by-case basis."
Thats not always the way it works for buying out companies.

Companies aren't bought out with the sole reason to bank so much profits it exceeds acquisition value. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. As I said, companies (like studios) have inherent value which sticks.

If a group of investors buys a sports team for $1B, do you really think they are getting profits back to exceed $1B anytime soon? Of course not. As long as nothing weird happens, the equity on the team will stick (more likely go up as even the shitty Florida Marlins are even worth a ton).

You made the mistake of thinking bought out companies are amortized like a car having it's value go down to $1000 after 10 years, so to make it profitable, you got to make money off a car to cover it's $50,000 cost.
 
Last edited:

McCheese

Member
Even as an Xbox owner this kind of sucks, Bethesda were a profitable company who were able to make the games they wanted without Microsoft investment.

There are many smaller and struggling indy companies to whom that money would have been mutually beneficial and really made a difference. But instead it's lining people's pockets in what is basically a permanent exclusively deal for games that would have been made anyway.

It's a good business move by Microsoft, but it's buying themselves out of a problem and isn't really good for the consumer.

There is also the gamepass business model to worry about, all these Bethesda games are going to have a lot more DLC or software as a service stuff bolted on now, single player AAA titles cannot afford to be on gamepass without them.
 
Last edited:

reksveks

Member
Even as an Xbox owner this kind of sucks, Bethesda were a profitable company who were able to make the games they wanted without Microsoft investment.

There are many smaller and struggling indy companies to whom that money would have been mutually beneficial and really made a difference. But instead it's lining people's pockets in what is basically a permanent exclusively deal for games that would have been made anyway.

It's a good business move by Microsoft, but it's buying themselves out of a problem and isn't really good for the consumer.

There is also gamepass business model to worry about, all these Bethesda games are going to have a lot more DLC or software as a service stuff bolted, single player AAA titles cannot afford to be on gamepass without them.
Not sure if that's true for all bethesda ip's, both the arkane properties whilst reviewed well and enjoyed seemed not to be successful enough.

Also just cause you have a subscription model, not all content is going to be the same adaptation however certain genres will get adapted to be more of a live service. Forza and Halo we know will have a longer lifespan, not sure that single player WRPG will change much.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Even as an Xbox owner this kind of sucks, Bethesda were a profitable company who were able to make the games they wanted without Microsoft investment.

There are many smaller and struggling indy companies to whom that money would have been mutually beneficial and really made a difference. But instead it's lining people's pockets in what is basically a permanent exclusively deal for games that would have been made anyway.

It's a good business move by Microsoft, but it's buying themselves out of a problem and isn't really good for the consumer.

There is also the gamepass business model to worry about, all these Bethesda games are going to have a lot more DLC or software as a service stuff bolted on now, single player AAA titles cannot afford to be on gamepass without them.
True. Good point.

All these Bethesda games would have come on Xbox anyway, so there is nothing, in particular, to gain for Xbox users. On the other hand, a move like creating The Initiative by MS will give something new to Xbox fans that they wouldn't have got otherwise.

Moreover, Xbox will likely make some of these games available on PlayStation. However, when Sony retaliates and buys a big company, they likely won't make those games available on Xbox. That'd suck for everything. I am not sure if anyone then will keep up the same energy about acquisitions and consolidations.
 

Troozi

Member
As a Sony fan boy, I kind of like the idea of Microsoft making Bethesda games exclusives, whether its permanent or X amount of time.

The reason I love my PlayStation so much is because of the exclusives, and until this, I had no reason to consider getting an XBOX (Halo and Gears didn't really do anything for me).

It'll all depend on what the games are actually realised (I've no interest in the back catalogue as I've already played most of those games), but I can certainly see me getting an XBOX at some point down the road now.
 

Riky

$MSFT
True. Good point.

All these Bethesda games would have come on Xbox anyway, so there is nothing, in particular, to gain for Xbox users.
However it does add something for Gamepass owners on Xbox, PC and Android. As they get access to the games on day one included in the cost of their subscription.
 

Duchess

Member
My own opinion is that the majority of Zenimax's titles will continue to turn up on Sony and Nintendo platforms, due to the fact that MS no longer considers these two to be their rivals:


Once again, this acquisition is all about future proofing GamePass.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
However it does add something for Gamepass owners on Xbox, PC and Android. As they get access to the games on day one included in the cost of their subscription.
It also prevents Sony from opening up the coffers for their million exclusivity and time deals with third party companies. Death Loop is already an example Sony did with Bethesda. And the last.
 
Last edited:

reksveks

Member
My own opinion is that the majority of Zenimax's titles will continue to turn up on Sony and Nintendo platforms, due to the fact that MS no longer considers these two to be their rivals:


Once again, this acquisition is all about future proofing GamePass.
Google has kinda shat the bed and Amazon can't get games out so they might have slightly changed their mind. I wonder how Luna is doing though?
 
Top Bottom