To be fair, they did adopt a scaleable architecture and patent SCD tech.
It's not unthinkable that they could keep up as costs came down, sucking hind-tit in the power dept just enough to keep up via their hybrid approach.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022
- Thread starter Skittzo0413
- Start date
To be fair, they did adopt a scaleable architecture and patent SCD tech.
It's not unthinkable that they could keep up as costs came down, sucking hind-tit in the power dept just enough to keep up via their hybrid approach.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
I don't know about 130 million by 2022, but I'm positive the Switch will outsell the other two consoles.
Jaded Alyx
Member
Why, when it can already be used as either or both?
yukianderson
Member
It will outsell the Xbone but not the PS4. I'll be surprised if it passes 60 million consoles sold. It will probably cap at 50 million by the time PS5 arrives.
SinCityAssassin
Member
I'd have to guess they're just directly basing their expectations on the Wii, since 5 years was essentially the span of its popularity relevance before falling off.
FrostuTheNinja
Member
NO!
IT'S NOT ALLOWED!!
*body contorts into an other worldly configuration*
NO!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
IT'S NOT ALLOWED!!
*body contorts into an other worldly configuration*
NO!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Japan and the Switch will be the difference maker and put the switch on top.
D.Lo
Member
Yeah that's one thing that seems a lock, it's going to utterly dominate Japan unlike anything since the PS2. 3DS will fade, Vita will be gone, and PS4 will be relegated to a niche. Switch will maybe hit DS levels.
Renegade Frost
Banned
Rational people use data driven evidence to back up their assertions.
With the rate the Switch is selling it'll mirror the DS's sales track long term
hush.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Its selling less then PS4 and you think its gonna surpass DS nothing data driven about that.
yukianderson
Member
He's been rational hush. No need to base it on reality.
As of now 130m seems a little high but 100m should be a lock.
I love your "when Nintendo sells that much Sony has to sell that much more" rationalization even more. Console superiority complex.
I love your "when Nintendo sells that much Sony has to sell that much more" rationalization even more. Console superiority complex.
Sweet Bellic
Member
For Nintendo and Switch owners, certainly. But as someone who would love to see games like BotW officially ported to PC someday, where they can really shine in full HD and 60+fps, I'm admittedly threatened by the success of Nintendo hardware.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Pokemon on the Switch will be insane for console sales.
Jaded Alyx
Member
the hell is this shit
I was thinking. Why are people assuming that the PS4 will continue to sell at its current pace? What we know about market disrupters (and the switch fits the definition of a market disrupter in this case), is that it changes the trajectory of the market. Isn't it at all conceivable, now that we have a viable third alternative for a gaming consoles, an attractive one at that with the switch, video game consumers can opt for the switch instead of purchasing the PS4? If this happens, I can totally see the switch hitting it's target sales number at the expense of the ps4.
D.Lo
Member
I can't tell if this is sarcasm?
And_Gignac
Member
I can see it.
All the signs point towards a DS-like success.
All the signs point towards a DS-like success.
Yoshimitsu126
Member
If Switch continues to sell like the 3DS or better, Japan alone will guarantee 20+ million Switch LTD and NA not too far behind. But with a unified library I can see the Switch and its revision possibly reaching PS3 sales (~90 million) easily especially if third party support from the west and Japan continues.
reelbigtink
Member
Niko, cousin, Nintendo is never going third party!
Renegade Frost
Banned
Spend some time on Sales age bro.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
I did and its behind PS4 bro.
Renegade Frost
Banned
You're more likely to get games that you can later emulate on PC if nintendo hardware is successful
so you;re being dumb
and flat out wrong
OrbitalBeard
Member
On one hand, lol
On the other hand, I actually kind of appreciate the honestly, as there are definitely others who share your view, but would never admit to it.
Renegade Frost
Banned
In the US sure.
In Japan its far ahead, and its tracking similarly in european territories not named the UK or India.
The PS4 is having very high sales and so is the Switch. We shall see how they shake out long term, provided how much they can manufacture.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Receipts or you making this shit up switch is behind in Germany,UK,Netherlands,Spain etc outside of France Nintendo is nowhere near Playstation in those European countries. Japan is a dying market that is moving more and more towards mobile.
Jaded Alyx
Member
Where are the receipts that Japan is a "dying market" ?
Hyperbole in the extreme.
DecoReturns
Member
That's a lot of Switches.
ThisIsMyDogKyle
Banned
I mean, you could do a tiny amount of research and figure it out yourself? and yes, the Switch is far far ahead of the PS4 week for week in Japan, like, it's so far ahead I'm pretty sure the guy who makes the graphs took PS4 off and is just comparing it to DS, Wii, PSP, and 3DS.
Renegade Frost
Banned
??? Since when has Germany been a weak market for Nintendo? Hell that's where NOE is.
Come on dude lol.
If you dont follow sales age on a regular basis like the rest of us do, dont make pointless assertions about how these devices will sell lmao
dragonflys545
Member
If only it has hits like Wii Sports. But I highly doubt it.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
I was talking about the Europe part not the Japanese part.
Hibiki Kurosawa
Member
I mean, that would be nice, but I think it's a little too optimistic.
Because the Switch has been out since March and PS4 sales haven't declined at all.
In fact, the PS4 has sold faster than ever in the first half of 2017.
TwistedFreeze
Member
Well it's not like the Switch will peak in it's first year, seeing as most systems don't peak in their first year unless they're failures, like the Wii U
D.Lo
Member
PS4 has sold poorly, after PS3 and Vita sold mediocre, so it is a dying market for Sony (and generally 'mainstream western') platforms.
3DS is the #2 selling platform of all time however (#3 if [incorrectly] counting 14 years of Game Boy+Game Boy Color sales combined as one platform), and Switch is already a cultural monster, so overall Japan is looking up as a whole.
When did I say anything about the Switch peaking in its first year?
Did you quote the wrong person?
Renegade Frost
Banned
Well its not like we'd know that now dude, PS4 is in peak year sales wise.
It took the Wii a few years to lose momentum due to loss of software.
For the Switch to eat the PS4's lunch it'd need to have some of the same key pieces of software and support in the online department as that's a big draw these days for those titles
ThisIsMyDogKyle
Banned
I see, my mistake, however calling Japan a dying market is laughable either way, it might be for Playstation, however it has become incredibly obvious that Japan considers Switch just as much a handheld as the 3DS, and roughly 1/3 of the total 3DS sales were in Japan alone and it has sold better in Japan than the entirety of North America, certainly not a number you can merely dismiss as a "dying market".
TwistedFreeze
Member
Oh no, it's just that you're pointing out that the PS4 has only been selling better and better year over year so I thought you were implying that the Switch wouldn't do that. My bad if I misinterpreted you
And_Gignac
Member
The Switch has outsold the PS4 in most of its months since released (in the US). All this with a lot of production issues.
Japan is a dying market for Sony. Nintendo is doing as good as ever.
Glass Shark
Banned
.
DriftingSpirit
Member
PS4 and Switch actually seem to have synergy. Neither is eating at the other. PS4 is having its best year so far despite the Switch launch.
All good.
Switch shouldn't peak for a couple more years barring a 3DS-like sales collapse. I expect the PS4 to start declining next year since it'll be in its 5th year on the market. And the successor will probably out 2019-2020.
I think if this includes a spec bump switch revision to a new Tegra chip in like 2019-2020 and it still isn't technically switch 2 but switch plus or something, sure (more like 100mil tops though, not this 130m nonsense).
It's gonna be looking very dated by Ps5 launch which will be right around 2020. That's really only 2 years to sell the bulk of its lifetime sales unless they do a pretty major revision to boost sales for a few more years.
It's gonna be looking very dated by Ps5 launch which will be right around 2020. That's really only 2 years to sell the bulk of its lifetime sales unless they do a pretty major revision to boost sales for a few more years.