-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022
- Thread starter Skittzo0413
- Start date
Geno Breaker
Banned
Yeah, I'll quote you when I win.Always am, but I love taking chancesCan we call this an official avatar bet for 2022?
Avatar bet aside, I think the Switch will sell at least 70 million units. It has a killer library already and it's bound to get cheaper. I'd totally buy one if I had the cash and
possibly contribute to my loss :^(
WooHooAlex
Member
That's adorable.
I love my Switch and I'm glad it's doing well, but no way in hell they sell 130 mil by 2022.
Even if they release portable only and console only versions and combine those numbers, I don't see how they'd hit that number.
I love my Switch and I'm glad it's doing well, but no way in hell they sell 130 mil by 2022.
Even if they release portable only and console only versions and combine those numbers, I don't see how they'd hit that number.
If it can sell, 100m, what's to stop it from selling 130? If it sells 100 million, that means it's a behemoth and a cultural phenomenon. Why wouldn't that be able to sell the extra 30?
For the moment i just want to see if it can reach 3DS or even PSP numbers. If it powers through, then anything is possible.
Good luck, bud!
Renna Hazel
Member
While I think 130 million may be a bit high, you have to at least give Switch one holiday season before we decide if it's as big as Wii or not. Holiday season creates mindshare and Wii launched in November. Switch is doing incredibly well for a console that launched in March. This upcoming holiday may well push it over the edge.
evil monkey
Member
With the regular pace Nintendo systems have (steady release of Nintendo IPs + Japanese third-parties), 100 mil LTD is very possible if they play their cards right. 130 mil is probably only attainable if we continue to see support from western pubs like with Doom and Wolfenstein.
What even is this argument?
"If it can sell 130 million, what's to stop it from selling 160?"
100 million would put it on par with the PS1 and Wii lifetime sales (And with the way things are going, the PS4's). That's a fucking lot of units, and it's hard to significantly push past that. Only two consoles have managed to pass 130 million in the history of the industry.
Lynd7
Member
Fair enough. It's just that general chatter and mainstream hype doesn't seem anywhere near the same. Could be wrong and it'll ramp up for the holidays.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
130 million... lol. 90 million is probably it's ceiling.
the Switch seems to be selling like the 3DS in Japan so 20 million is possible there whereas the Wii did not get close to that (~12-13 mil iirc), the Switch seems to be extremely popular elsewhere though supply isn't meeting demand still so uncertainty there (so ignore the 2nd statement I'll retract that the main point is that the Switch is popular everywhere whereas the Wii did best in the west and the 3DS did best in Japan), and the Switch will have the full might of Nintendo's internal studios behind it plus it will likely receive multiple revisions so I doubt we'll see a situation where Nintendo leaves it hanging in 4 years like what happened with the Wii post-2010
killatopak
Gold Member
very optimistic prediction. It would be surprising if it could even hit 3DS numbers.
Demoskinos
Member
It also helps they have a Proper Mario title coming out this fall.
RayearthRob
Member
Well people are actually buying it in the first year, so I wouldn't be too surprised if it beat that.
NoMoreTrolls
Banned
That would be a fantastic result.
Astral Dog
Member
No way it will sell that much
Being frank, I see it JUST breaking 100m by then. I am just betting on certain variables being bigger phenomena than many of us assume. Your bet is, on paper, a safer one. I like playing it unsafe, though.
70m is a very respectable but realistically optimistic forecast. Again, I see about 30m more, realistically. Hoping for 60m more, though, because I really don't want a Knack avatar.
Renegade Frost
Banned
DS mabobo
dreamlongdead
Member
Switch has no chance in hell with its level of third party support. That would have to improve massively starting next year.
I don't think any console will get there again. PS4 has a chance at 100 million, though.
I don't think any console will get there again. PS4 has a chance at 100 million, though.
DeuceGamer
Member
I think 3DS numbers would be inline with what most people expect now and definitely wouldn't be surprising at this point in time. In fact, I think most people would be surprised it if didn't reach 3DS numbers at this point.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
Crazy expectations. The console is way too expensive to reach those numbers, if Nintendo lower the price over the years the switch will reach 100m eventually.
2017 ($300) 13m - Stock problems.
2018 ($300) 30m - Pokémon, GTA V and COD at the end of the year and Nintendo Land 2 free with every console.
2019 ($250) 50m - Animal Crossing, Smash 5 and 2D Mario. New Switch.
2020 ($200) 68m - Mario Kart 9 and Splatoon 3 bundles. FFVII and RE2 remake.
2021 ($200) 85m - BOTW 2 and Pokémon MMORPG.
2022 ($150) 100m - Mario Galaxy 3, Switch Sports. Switch Mini.
2017 ($300) 13m - Stock problems.
2018 ($300) 30m - Pokémon, GTA V and COD at the end of the year and Nintendo Land 2 free with every console.
2019 ($250) 50m - Animal Crossing, Smash 5 and 2D Mario. New Switch.
2020 ($200) 68m - Mario Kart 9 and Splatoon 3 bundles. FFVII and RE2 remake.
2021 ($200) 85m - BOTW 2 and Pokémon MMORPG.
2022 ($150) 100m - Mario Galaxy 3, Switch Sports. Switch Mini.
No clue what number it will actually achieve, but I think ultimately it has a good chance of keeping mindshare and constant sales through 2022. Nobody seems to have mentioned how well designed the system is for customization and extensions. They can add new features and styles very easily. So who knows about the final tally, but I certainly agree with the outperform.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Ah so this is why NTDOY popped and broke through their 52-week high today.
evil monkey
Member
The 3DS comparisons are really out of place. It had the worst launch of all Nintendo handhelds and even post-price cut had to still compete against smartphones, which are still to this day seen as the more convenient place to game by the majority of the DS userbase (and most people nowadays really).
Switch, being a home console first, has none of these problems, and is the only device of its kind on the market. They have had trouble stocking it at 300 USD since launch. Imagine what numbers it'll pull once it hits 200 and lower, and when the inevitable Switch Mini targeting children gets released. We have barely seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this thing's potential.
Switch, being a home console first, has none of these problems, and is the only device of its kind on the market. They have had trouble stocking it at 300 USD since launch. Imagine what numbers it'll pull once it hits 200 and lower, and when the inevitable Switch Mini targeting children gets released. We have barely seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this thing's potential.
Suzushiiro
Banned
130M may be a stretch but I'd be shocked if it didn't outperform the 3DS when all is said and done- being that system's successor (and having no real competition this time around) means that the 3DS is its floor, sales-wise. Barring a GPD Win-like device gaining some sort of mainstream penetration or Sony going insane and making a Vita 2 if you like non-phone portable gaming then Switch will be the only game in town. From there its just a question of how much its console-ness (increasing its appeal for the people who don't usually bother with portable systems) and the fact that it's going to be the target of all of Nintendo's first-party resources as opposed to just half of them affects it.
Regardless, I don't think we'll be able to get any real idea of the Switch's long-term sales trajectory until it stops spending the majority of the time being out of stock/only on sale at above retail price in bundles and from weird minor third-party resellers. But until we hit that point I'm more inclined to believe the more optimistic projections.
Regardless, I don't think we'll be able to get any real idea of the Switch's long-term sales trajectory until it stops spending the majority of the time being out of stock/only on sale at above retail price in bundles and from weird minor third-party resellers. But until we hit that point I'm more inclined to believe the more optimistic projections.
I fully expect 150.00 by 2020 with the release of a Switch pro/2 which will be backwards and forwards compatible and around 2-3 times as powerful as switch 1, for 299. the Switch family will definitely sell around 130 million by 2022. Switch on its on? 100 mill i bet. That's how i see it happening, a "base switch then a year/2 later a Pro switch" so the family can sell. and since its backwards/forward compatible, it is a huge base to sell games to.
You right. Prolly holiday 2021.
flipswitch
Member
130milion? That's quite a lot and can't see that happening. Maybe 80-100milion.
3DS is a low bar, imo. It is sure to hit that number
Wait... 90m by 2020? Goddamn, and I thought I was optimistic by betting 50m by then.
Im betting 100m by 2020.
TwistedFreeze
Member
As bullish as their prediction is, I'm finding the sub-60 million predictions to be just as silly. I mean, the 3DS, even with it's relatively unappealing hardware and confusing name still managed to sell above 60 million, and, unlike the 3DS, the Switch is selling well at it's higher price point and it should stay high as price goes down, revisions are made, and the library improves. In all honesty, I'd say 3DS numbers are the floor and Wii+ numbers are the ceiling
D.Lo
Member
It's too early to either say it will hit 100 million or to rule it out.
Anyone saying either 'It will outsell the Wii' or 'no way it will sell that much' is engaging in absolutism that cannot be backed up.
What we do know is it has a start much more like a winning system (PS2/DS/Wii) than a failing system (Wii U) or even a medicore/recovered from bad start system (3DS/PS3).
My speculation based on current trajectory:
Beating the Wii U is a lock
Gamecube will be easy
N64 level is now likely minimum (90% chance), even if year 2 is a mess.
3DS/PSP level seems likely, maybe 80% chance but falling short of that cannot be ruled out.
Wii level is 40-50% chance
Beyond that we'll just have to see how history plays out.
Anyone saying either 'It will outsell the Wii' or 'no way it will sell that much' is engaging in absolutism that cannot be backed up.
What we do know is it has a start much more like a winning system (PS2/DS/Wii) than a failing system (Wii U) or even a medicore/recovered from bad start system (3DS/PS3).
My speculation based on current trajectory:
Beating the Wii U is a lock
Gamecube will be easy
N64 level is now likely minimum (90% chance), even if year 2 is a mess.
3DS/PSP level seems likely, maybe 80% chance but falling short of that cannot be ruled out.
Wii level is 40-50% chance
Beyond that we'll just have to see how history plays out.
Yes it is too high, there isn't enough data to support 130m by 2022 being plausible.
Holy shit dude. I have 2 avatar bets going, and one is 50m by 2020. I was called crazy for that.
I would love for you to win your bet.
cubicle47b
Member
I think it's going to outsell the 3DS, but I'll have to see the revisions before I start believing it can hit Wii/DS levels. I have a feeling the attach rate is going to be really high, though.
AyaisMUsikWhore
Member
Yeaaaaah no. Technology moves way to fast for Nintendo to sit on old tech for 5 years. I can only see this if they truly wanted to make this the successor to the 3DS
Renegade Frost
Banned
It' would be on track to be the best selling system of all time at that rate
Renegade Frost
Banned
In how many years? 10?