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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

Boke1879 said:
I give October to MS simply for Gears. I think BF1 sells better on PS4.
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Maybe if MS make a XBO S bundled with the game for $300, October would probably be a lock. some type of promotion will help cause PS VR is a potential system seller and Uncharted 4 bundle is really interesting.
 
Sterok said:
Consumers really seem to be wising up to holiday deals being so good. The PS4 price drop last year also had a disappointing effect. Then the holidays came and of course both consoles sold incredibly well. So I expect the PS4 to disappoint many in September (though it'll still sell decently), but both will explode during the holidays again.
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I mean we'll see. Right now you can get the COD bundle for $300, and I wonder if retailers will start pricing lower to get rid of stock quicker.

Next week you can get the Slim Uncharted 4 bundle for $300 which is a great deal, but are people going to kinda wait until November? Will people wait for the Pro to release?
 
mejin said:
Maybe if MS make a XBO S bundled with the game for $300, October would probably be a lock. some type of promotion will help cause PS VR is a potential system seller and Uncharted 4 bundle is really interesting.
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From the prediction thread, it looks like there is going to be 2 Battlefield bundles. 500gb and 1tb
 
Oh shit lol Gears 4 is in October, I mixed it up with November when I thought Microsoft could take November.
 
etta said:
Hmmmm, so the Pro could do 300K alone?
Hmmmm I dunno, if Microsoft goes crazy with it and does the Xbox One S 500GB + a copy of Gears of War 4 + a 4K UHD movie + $50 store coupon OR any new game free at Microsoft Stores (I assume they will do this again for Call of Duty launch) on top of a crazy marketing blitz with the UHD drive and cheap 4K TVs this Black Friday... that thing will sell like crazy, probably even exceed their best November of 1.35 million (was that just for November 2014?).
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You know, I can totally see them doing something like that. Im sure both companies will have some pretty enticing deals.


Edit: From the other thread, the free UHD movie has started already?
 
Boke1879 said:
Again I gotta see. I think BF is one of those games that's going to sell better on the PS4 despite there being an X1 bundle. With Gears launching later that month that'll be the real bundle seller imo.
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At 450$?
That bundle is not made to sell consoles but to exploit fans.
 
Boke1879 said:
Again I gotta see. I think BF is one of those games that's going to sell better on the PS4 despite there being an X1 bundle. With Gears launching later that month that'll be the real bundle seller imo.
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BF 1 one will probably be 1080p on the PS4P and 720p on the XBO this holiday season. That's got to count for something.
 
Boke1879 said:
Again I gotta see. I think BF is one of those games that's going to sell better on the PS4 despite there being an X1 bundle. With Gears launching later that month that'll be the real bundle seller imo.
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With the differences in install base, BF should sell better on PS4, I'll be shocked if it doesn't......

Also, isn't the only Gears bundle the special edition console? I don't think it'll move all that much tbh.
 
Boke1879 said:
Again I gotta see. I think BF is one of those games that's going to sell better on the PS4 despite there being an X1 bundle. With Gears launching later that month that'll be the real bundle seller imo.
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Gears comes out October 11 and BF comes out October 18

Also the gears bundle is limited and more expensive. I think it'll do less than the halo 5 bundle did
 
MaulerX said:
You know, I can totally see them doing something like that. Im sure both companies will have some pretty enticing deals.


Edit: From the other thread, the free UHD movie has started already?
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I would be shocked if you couldn't pick up an X1S for effectively $200 this holiday season after including a GC. Plus 2 games or maybe BF1.
 
watdaeff4 said:
With the differences in install base, BF should sell better on PS4, I'll be shocked if it doesn't......

Also, isn't the only Gears bundle the special edition console? I don't think it'll move all that much tbh.
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blakep267 said:
Gears comes out October 11 and BF comes out October 18

Also the gears bundle is limited and more expensive. I think it'll do less than the halo 5 bundle did
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Ok My bad. I didn't know the Gears bundle was limited Edition only. That'll probably help them out in November though when it will no doubt be discounted/ offered with the Slim I assume.
 
watdaeff4 said:
With the differences in install base, BF should sell better on PS4, I'll be shocked if it doesn't......

Also, isn't the only Gears bundle the special edition console? I don't think it'll move all that much tbh.
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That's not usually the case with FPS genre, many times XB1 version did better than PS4 version.
 
So all sites reporting Xbox One beat PS4 for past 30min And not a single thread on GAF yet :O
 
BeforeU said:
So all sites reporting Xbox One beat PS4 for past 30min And not a single thread on GAF yet :O
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No one creates threads because they'd be shitposted into oblivion like most threads.

It was expected they'd take August. I'd say the run ends there. AT BEST, they might take Septemer by a bee's dick but I doubt it.
 
BeforeU said:
So all sites reporting Xbox One beat PS4 for past 30min And not a single thread on GAF yet :O
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Usually we have one thread to discuss everything NPD: NPD results thread. However since NPD changed their format of reporting (HW at first, SW the week after it), the results thread comes out one week later.

Anyway, feel free to create a thread of you want. I don't think mods will be against it.
 
ViciousDS said:
OMG


3 years here and I just noticed this!

I went as far as I could and was like.......how deep does this fucking thing go.



deep enough
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Only Chobel could make so many bets to get that tag, I remember when it all started,

with bloodborne eat my hat bet.
 
Vena said:
Oh I am not arguing against value, both the X1S and the... Slim, what do we even call the new PS4? Are better deals than their predecessors, so the value proposition has obviously gone up. But it feels like a very minor incremental change in the value proposition on the latter while the former actually gives a very nice utility gain on top of the value proposition change.

As I said, that whole presser just left like no impact.
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I think this is the best anyone could have expected coming out of PS4 Slim pricing. They weren't going to $249 before BF unless it was a stand-alone PS4.

And while it doesn't have a UHD player, I don't really think that matters much to the vast, vast majority of people the PS4 is targeting

All in all, it's a good $50 price drop that should continue PS4's momentum and maybe reverse a bit of that downward trajectory from the past few months..

Boke1879 said:
People expected the bounce to be bigger, but I don't see why. Nothing released to give that impression. It was literally just Slim release that fueled some extra sales. Again it'll be interesting to see how the PS4 does this month in relation.
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I expected much bigger. These are really disappointing numbers. For several reasons from my perspective.

1) XB1 has been down nearly every month this year (except 1 before August).
2) XB1 had a huge firesale last month and only won that month by a measly 10k, leading me to believe that much like last year, maybe the arrival of the Slim is transferring sales into next month.
3) It's the big revision that MS has all the way until Scorpio in late 2017, if it makes a muted impact, it's not the worst thing but it pretty much continues the downward trajectory of the XB1 that we've seen all of this year.
4) Firesales really aren't effective at all for the XB1 in regular months.

Even if XB1 sold 308k this month, it's YTD is still a good 100-120k down from last year. And with how much Sony seems to be throwing at the wall this year, how many crazy bundles will MS have to pull out to not only be competitive but try and be up YoY by the end?
 
Primethius said:
I think this is the best anyone could have expected coming out of PS4 Slim pricing. They weren't going to $249 before BF unless it was a stand-alone PS4.

And while it doesn't have a UHD player, I don't really think that matters much to the vast, vast majority of people the PS4 is targeting

All in all, it's a good $50 price drop that should continue PS4's momentum and maybe reverse a bit of that downward trajectory from the past few months..



I expected much bigger. These are really disappointing numbers. For several reasons from my perspective.

1) XB1 has been down nearly every month this year (except 1 before August).
2) XB1 had a huge firesale last month and only won that month by a measly 10k, leading me to believe that much like last year, maybe the arrival of the Slim is transferring sales into next month.
3) It's the big revision that MS has all the way until Scorpio in late 2017, if it makes a muted impact, it's not the worst thing but it pretty much continues the downward trajectory of the XB1 that we've seen all of this year.
4) Firesales really aren't effective at all for the XB1 in regular months.

Even if XB1 sold 308k this month, it's YTD is still a good 100-120k down from last year. And with how much Sony seems to be throwing at the wall this year, how many crazy bundles will MS have to pull out to not only be competitive but try and be up YoY by the end?
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Yea idk and it seems they sold less than 300k. They got a boost from the slim being released and the fire sales. How is that going to translate this month? PS4 right now can be had for $300. COD bundles, LE unchartd 4 bundle on sale right now.

Next week you get a $300 UC4 bundle to ride out the month
 
ViciousDS said:
3 years here and I just noticed this!
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It's only been like that for a few months, I think. Sometime in 2016, IIRC.

allan-bh said:
Maybe NPD guy on Chartz is legit and Aquamarine is gone.
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The name is legit (he's come up before to stop leaks), and the writing style seems legit. If Aqua really has permissions, she'll be fine and keep posting. If she didn't/doesn't have permission, she won't keep posting.
 
Looks like Pro is sky rocketing to top in Amazon... it is being #1/#2 for hours already... way ahead of Slim.

This is at least a good sigh.
 
ethomaz said:
Looks like Pro is sky rocketing to top in Amazon... it is being #1/#2 for hours already... way ahead of Slim.

This is at least a good sigh.
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People like to talk a lot of stuff about the market wanting cheap... But give core gamers an opportunity to spend a lot and they will.

FOMO is alive and well in the core gaming market.
 
CosmicQueso said:
People like to talk a lot of stuff about the market wanting cheap... But give core gamers an opportunity to spend a lot and they will.

FOMO is alive and well in the core gaming market.
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Early adopters always buys at any price to be fair but I guess Pro is in a good price point... if I'm a new buyer choosing between the $399 (Pro) and $299 (Slim) I will go Pro easily.
 
That other thread is a mess.

Setting that aside, pretty good month overall. Madden comps with digital will be interesting next week, but overall good momentum going into late Q3 and Q4.
 
I hope Aqua is not in trouble right now...

Cosmic, sorry for the question but waiting for Aqua if she can post numbers, can you tell us if XBO sales were better or worse than the GAF avg? Also PS4? Thank you.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=216099367&postcount=158

Javin98 said:
R.I.P my predictions. Damn it, Ryng, you made me believe the 3DS would do really well again in August. :P
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Of course lol, after what's happen in July ;P is not my fault if you choise the worst month for believe me or not muhahahaha

P.S

No but seriusly, If 3DS is 150k or so is still great, is still way better than 2014/2015 and even better than 2013.
 
Hm. It sounds like the win wasn't very impressive for them. Seems like what I saw trending in our districts has been across the board then.

I wonder how that bodes for them. The XB1 S models really haven't lit the world on fire in any major way, and I don't anticipate them adding any fresh momentum.

The slim PS4 with the price reduction will just further even things out on that scale (No preorders, it will just be dropped onto the market clear cut, as far as I was informed), but the PS4 pro is a totally different proposition for November, we're already getting solid interest and there was some great demand for the preorder option right away. We'll see how it goes.
 
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