MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Record breaking launch sales and comparisons with market leaders in previous generations that were hugley supply constrained in the same period.
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IDG Estimates 34 million PS4 & XB1 sold through worldwide through April
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
Record breaking launch sales and comparisons with market leaders in previous generations that were hugley supply constrained in the same period.
So you think this generation will be larger than the last? You believe that consoles will sell more than 270 million?
Hi Opiate, do you mind changing the title to "as of April".
It seems this number was part of the IDG whitepaper for 2015 released to clients recently.
Is that really what that poster is trying to say? If so, that's pretty foolish. 180 million before the consoles are discontinued would be my bet.
He said that there is growth in the console market in the post I just quoted. Earlier, he seemed to agree there was contraction.
Does he believe the console market is experiencing growth, contraction, or stagnation? I just want a straight answer.
If there are fewer consoles sold this generation than the last, then there is contraction. If there are more sold, there is growth. Which do we think it will be?
Definitely contraction. No way in Hell will all three consoles combined come close to the 270 million sales of last gen. The Wii audience has almost completely left the console market for smartphones. We should all know this.
The PS2 had many of these gamers before the Wii did -- I think we're saying that casual consumers have abandoned consoles.
With that said, a market can survive on its "core" audience, but the issue consoles face is that costs continue to escalate relentlessly. A simple example: the Harley Davidson motorcycle market isn't growing very fast, but it has a stable pool of reliably loyal customers who maintain the company's profitability. That would be far less true if the cost of producing motorcycles doubled (in real terms) every 5-10 years. To sustain that sort of cost increase, you need growth -- the sort of growth the Wii generation provided but which is now, apparently, gone.
Yep, pretty much this. Hopefully, Sony drops the price of the PS4 to $299 this October to draw back some of these casual gamers. Who knows? Morpheus might be a hit too.
Omnistalgic
Member
this is actually interesting. I've had similar feelings, in that what if consoles got incremental updates instead of 5-6 year refreshes. Bc would of course be the main draw,but it also would keep the excitement going in the space with new hardware always showing up every 4 years. 2 years u get the slim version, 4 years you get PS5. What are the drawbacks to this exactly?
If the Wii was made like the Wii-U (not waggle focused) and was the follow up machine to the GameCube, it most likely would have sold GameCube numbers last gen. The market had a boom of new demographics last gen because the Wii was a huge success with new demographics. It's impossible for this gen to see those numbers because that demographic that became console gamers for only one generation are gone now.
The question I have is this. If we take the Wii fad buyers out of the equation and look at actual non-fad console buyers and we assign a Wii sales number that is equal to the GameCube sales number from the preceding generation (actual Nintendo platform fans), do we then see Wii/PS3/360 still exceeding what Wii-U/PS4/XBO ends up selling?
This generational shift is different than any other in console history because of those soccer moms and grandpas buying a singular console for a few years of virtual bowling.
Welfare
Member
Wii U will still be less than the Wii, PS4 will outsell PS3, and the Xbox One will sell less than the 360.
8th gen will still sell less even when you remove "fad" consumers.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Because Iwata believed the market was contracting, and the Wii (and DS) was an attempt to re-invigorate it and draw in more customers.
Yes we will.
And doing that what we see is a market that is stagnant since the PS2 days, even ignoring the extended lifespan of last gen.
ie Nintendo were right.
Unsupported by any data and ignoring every demographic that bought a PS2 (the previous high tidemark) as anything other than true hardcore real gamers
Yes, the consoles needed to keep these newer buyers they have lost.
There is nothing inherently faddish about these consumers -- pretty clearly they are still gaming, as the enormous and still growing success of iOS attests to. They just aren't doing so on consoles anymore, because the new consoles are bad at meeting their needs.
What can be done to attract them again? Or are they permanently lost because Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft can't figure out how to appeal to them?
IMO, it always comes back to accessibility. The wiggle controls were simple and intuitive. Anyone could figure out how to play a game in less than 5 minutes. Add to that a relatively low entry price point and the craze over accessory driven games such as Wii Fitness/Guitar Hero/Rock Band you got a recipe for success.
Smartphones and tablets do a better job of filling this need. The general public simply doesn't need a dedicated console to play games anymore.
myharlequin
Member
definitely there will be a drop comparing to the last gen, because Wii was a really strange success. This generation has a more "normal" behavior. With the PS4 leading, the XB1 far behind and the WiiU very very far.
Hard to say, but as far as I know this generation needs those millions of casual gamers that let the Wii became the winner of the last generation.
Hard to say, but as far as I know this generation needs those millions of casual gamers that let the Wii became the winner of the last generation.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with this, but we need to recognize the implications. Are we saying that home consoles -- after decades of continuous, persistent growth -- are now permanently relegated to a relatively small corner of the overall gaming market?
serversurfer
Member
As of the beginning or the end of April? Where are you getting this information?
I think that's a myth, assuming you're talking about game development costs. I know that at the start of a new generation, pubs are eager to talk about how the new hardware means 2-4x more work for them or whatever, but that doesn't actually seem to be reflected in the team sizes or development times. The Shadow Fall team was only 20% larger than the team which worked on KZ2. Granted, 20% is a fairly significant increase, but not nearly as significant as a 100% increase.
Also, it seems to assume that all development is or should be AAA, which I don't think is particularly healthy for the industry in general. The emergence of indies and resurgence of mid-tier development is surely bringing the average dev costs down from what we saw last gen, not to mention increasing the diversity of experiences offered.
FWIW, I'm in the camp that thinks the money spent on 900M Wii games or whatever was sold last gen is now being spent on mobile gaming instead. So while those particular devs obviously should move on to iOS development, I don't think the loss of the Wii audience represents a significant decline in the size of the market for games like CoD or Destiny or even Bloodborne.
It's important to note that the Wii generation was not the first time that consoles had grown generation over generation, or even grown rapidly.
The PS1 generation saw similar percentage growth to last gen: it was ~80% larger than the SNES/Genesis generation that came before it. The PS2 generation was 35% larger still.
So the difference in the Wii generation wasn't that the overall console market grew; that was, up until that point, normal behavior. The difference is that the consoles couldn't figure out how to retain customers like it had in the past.
The PS1 generation saw similar percentage growth to last gen: it was ~80% larger than the SNES/Genesis generation that came before it. The PS2 generation was 35% larger still.
So the difference in the Wii generation wasn't that the overall console market grew; that was, up until that point, normal behavior. The difference is that the consoles couldn't figure out how to retain customers like it had in the past.
It's not just between generations, but even within generations, costs continue to rise. Killzone may be a particular exception -- I don't know, I haven't studied it -- but we're talking overall averages. Assassin's Creed III, for instance, cost more than all the ACs that came before it put together. Halo 4 was the same. Those may be outliers on the other end of the bellcurve, of course; what we're looking for is averages, and from what I can tell, the average is much higher than 20% increase over 5 years, although it's certainly possible it's 80% and not 100%.
I think that's right, but that causes its own problems. Because costs continue to ramp up relentlessly, keeping a stable consumer base with increasing costs is a bad recipe in the long term -- which is why I suspect we're seeing increasingly fewer games released at retail on consoles.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
This is anecdotal knowledge and I can't provide a link, but I know for a fact that KZ:SF had extensive work done on it by Sony Cambridge as a support studio.
Welfare
Member
End of would make more sense.
If it were the beginning, then the Xbox One would be super high. The PS4 was at 20.2m at the beginning of March, and had sold 1.7m in January and February combined. If PS4 sold 1 million during March, that leaves the Xbox One at almost 13 million sold through.
The end of April makes more sense.
Oh shit! His reply to Death probably did it.
Boombox On
Member
The problem is that those types of games that console gaming is mostly geared towards. Yes, there is some degree of indie and mid-tier development on consoles, but those teams seem far more often to be PC-focused and show up on consoles later, when they're already successful. The AAA industry is what is truly holding console gaming up. I agree that it is not healthy, but that for consoles is the standard. In fact, every time I've seen someone talk about indie gaming from a business standpoint, it's for filling the gaps between AAA releases (which we are seeing fewer of)
My thoughts exactly. He was pretty harsh to Death, but we all know how Death sometimes tends to doubt reliable information.
It is not related to this data. He will be back relatively soon (I did not ban him, personally).
No doubt about it. The fact that Apple seems to be reluctant to enter (if not completely circumventing) the battle for the living room tells us all we need to know.
That's true. But we shouldn't disregard the fact that with the Wii, Nintendo was able to drag in the casuals like no one has done before (or since). Remember how CNN and other mainstream media were going bonkers over moms and grandpas playing Wii Sports and shit. And then the balance board came out and gave the Wii another noticeable boost. Not to mention how music games blew up with the casual crowd.
No matter which way you want to slice it, the gaming console still sold 9 games per box. It was healthy. So if grandma only bought the box plus Wii fit to do squats and bowl, gamers purchased way more to make up for her slack. Kinda like other consoles that had a healthy "casual" ecosystem, like the ps2 and the 360's good selling period.
This sort of thing isn't really public. The ban is short; that's all I'll say.
Ok, thanks. I'll edit my post just to be on the safe side.
I mostly agree, but would add further thoughts: this is no different than saying "With the PS1, Sony was able to draw in fans of 'cinematic' style games like no one before, thanks to games like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VII."
That's also true, and it's part of the reason the console market grew so much from the SNES generation which preceded the PS1. Then, the console industry was able to keep those customers by continuing to service their needs with games in future generations. And that last part is the difference: each generation draws in new types of consumers (or at least that had been true up until now). Then, future console generations would build on that and retain those new customers over time.
That didn't happen this gen; all those new customers have basically been lost to newer, faster growing platforms like Facebook and iOS. Again, the difference isn't in attracting new customers; every generation before this one attracted new demographics that hadn't been gaming on consoles before. The difference was that those new customers weren't retained this time.
Gaming on a television is bad for meeting their needs. The new fad is people attempting to multitask. Gaming or reading websites on their iPad while the TV is going. Nintendo tried to capitalize on that but those same multitasking gamers are happier with touch-control gaming. And Nintendo can't capitalize on that with a $350 console that is branded and advertised like a Wii peripheral and has an invisible tether of distance for usability.
Multiuse device is the new fad. A handheld device that can stream netflix, surf the web, and play bite-sized games all without a television or an invisible tether.
Nope, for me it doesn't make any sense. US is 7 mil. sold trough, UK is around 1.6 mil sold-trough, Germany is around 400k, France is over 400k, rest of the world... 2.0 mil. maybe sold-trough.
So, 11.5 mil sold-trough for Xbone TOP
Im pretty sure PS4 is now around 22.5-23 mil. TOP.
CosmicQueso
Member
The 34m PS4 & Xone WW number does represent as of end April.
Pourin one out for Zhuge.
My math only gets me to approximately 220m WW? (unless you're including 3DS & Vita?) Hmmm.
People make mistakes in assumptions when forecasting. That was a long time ago, however. Their current methodology is solid, if (imo) conservative.
But yeah, take all forecasting with a grain of salt. All forecasting does is calculate results based on a pool of assumptions. It's not prophecy, nor should it be seen as such. The assumptions were wrong at the time (assuming PS3 = PS2 benchmark, X360 = XBX benchmark in particular).
Well, then I think you want to say that a segment of the market is growing. However, the rest of it (Nintendo, HandHeld, Packaged PC games) have all had drastic declines, leading to declines overall. The good news is that there's not much more room to fall. The hurt has happened in those markets. But getting to growth? Tough to see unless we see more disruptive products hit the space to recapture the mass market (I guess VR would be the current Hope). Longer term? Anyone's guess, but tough to see a rebound in dedicated gaming hardware for the masses unless things change drastically (ie Cable & Satellite TV providers offering combo receiver/console boxes, for example).
Whatever the hell it is. (IDG currently labels it as the "Wii DS" in its forecasting models, because who knows)
In 2011 (just a point in time comparison because the data is handy) EMEA accounted for 39% of the WW installed base on PS3 & X360. Now, EMEA accounts for around 42% of PS4 & Xone. In Packaged Software sales, EMEA is now 51% of the market on PS4 & Xone, where it accounted for 44% in 2011 on PS3 & X360. So yeah, good share growth in EMEA, and US is definitely not the world.
It is more expensive to make games now, absolutely. But it's very tough to do an apples:apples vs prior generations. It is more expensive to push more pixels, sure. But the kinds of games being made now, and the scale at which they have to be produced... these games now have far more detail, content, and "stuff". Last gen, FPS was the rage, right? Making a 10-15 hour SP FPS with MP components cost far, far less than a 30 hour, open world, 1080p (give or take some p's), action game (which is now currently what sell best).
I don't think you can make a flat assumption on the increase. But a range of "More Expensive" to "Way More Expensive" to "Betting the Company on it More Expensive" is the right ballpark.
Pourin one out for Zhuge.
My math only gets me to approximately 220m WW? (unless you're including 3DS & Vita?) Hmmm.
Same IDG that had this chart at the the start of last gen.
I will take their predictions with the grain of salt.
People make mistakes in assumptions when forecasting. That was a long time ago, however. Their current methodology is solid, if (imo) conservative.
But yeah, take all forecasting with a grain of salt. All forecasting does is calculate results based on a pool of assumptions. It's not prophecy, nor should it be seen as such. The assumptions were wrong at the time (assuming PS3 = PS2 benchmark, X360 = XBX benchmark in particular).
Well, then I think you want to say that a segment of the market is growing. However, the rest of it (Nintendo, HandHeld, Packaged PC games) have all had drastic declines, leading to declines overall. The good news is that there's not much more room to fall. The hurt has happened in those markets. But getting to growth? Tough to see unless we see more disruptive products hit the space to recapture the mass market (I guess VR would be the current Hope). Longer term? Anyone's guess, but tough to see a rebound in dedicated gaming hardware for the masses unless things change drastically (ie Cable & Satellite TV providers offering combo receiver/console boxes, for example).
Whatever the hell it is. (IDG currently labels it as the "Wii DS" in its forecasting models, because who knows)
In 2011 (just a point in time comparison because the data is handy) EMEA accounted for 39% of the WW installed base on PS3 & X360. Now, EMEA accounts for around 42% of PS4 & Xone. In Packaged Software sales, EMEA is now 51% of the market on PS4 & Xone, where it accounted for 44% in 2011 on PS3 & X360. So yeah, good share growth in EMEA, and US is definitely not the world.
It is more expensive to make games now, absolutely. But it's very tough to do an apples:apples vs prior generations. It is more expensive to push more pixels, sure. But the kinds of games being made now, and the scale at which they have to be produced... these games now have far more detail, content, and "stuff". Last gen, FPS was the rage, right? Making a 10-15 hour SP FPS with MP components cost far, far less than a 30 hour, open world, 1080p (give or take some p's), action game (which is now currently what sell best).
I don't think you can make a flat assumption on the increase. But a range of "More Expensive" to "Way More Expensive" to "Betting the Company on it More Expensive" is the right ballpark.
Where are you starting each generation? Are you starting the generations with the 360/Wii U launch, or PS3/PS4 launch?
slavesnyder
Member
He will come back with a vengeance. prepare for lots of graphs...
CosmicQueso
Member
Oh, so you're including legacy platform sales post launch of the new gen? That would make more sense. I was just counting the sales of that gen's consoles, disregarding sales of the old boxes.
Exactly. And I think this is really sad. Because not only were those customers lost, it will be incredibly hard to bring them back, because games that they're playing now are either free or incredibly cheap, plus they're gaming on devices that they already own.
I honestly think that if you were analyze the sheer number of customers that for example Nintendo lost this gen, and how they lost them, it's just incredible and unparalleled in the history of gaming.
But the Wii demographic didn't leave gaming, they split, most of them went mobile while a few (I think 30% according to Sony) bought a PS4, but just because they went to mobile doesn't mean they disappeared, it just means that their needs are there.
And the whole Wii = Casuals is a myth, I don't think there's any franchise out there right now that can be more casual than FIFA for example. Casual gamer means a gamer that spends X amount of money per year on video games & x amount of hours per week playing them, it has nothing to do with old people, just because a person is 60 years old doesn't mean s/he's casual or vice versa, there are plenty of "casual" young adults & "hardcore" grandmas/grandpas.
The Growth seen on PS2 stayed last gen, it just split between two consoles by region, US/UK PS2 owners mostly upgraded to 360 while EU & RotW bought a PS3.
Anyway, Wii gamers going into mobile gaming is not a bad thing at all, I enjoy some mobile games from time to time, why can't both markets be viable? I can play Bloodborne at home & WWE Supercard at work, do I have to choose one "side"?
& regarding the Wii audience leaving affecting the PS4/XB1, it never will, that audience is not part of the demographic that makes the majority of AAA software revenue, the Wii was its own "bubble" last gen.
Yes, that is probably more appropriate. The problem with this gen is significantly increased by the near immediate collapse of last generation sales once the PS4/One launched.
CosmicQueso
Member
Okay cool. The forecast numbers in the OP are for PS4/Xone/WiiU only, and don't take into account sales of legacy platforms. Just for clarity.
I made a graph for this.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I think we have to do apples to apples, because - you are 100% right - that scale of content has also risen dramatically along with cost, but so has consumer expectations.
The Order was critically crucified, and a large part of that was a result of the brevity of the experience.
Titanfall and Evolve both got hit critically for lack of traditional single-player campaigns.
These were all big budget games whose production polish was extremely visible, but consumer expectations are now so high that even if you did want to make a game with smaller scope on smaller budget you wouldn't be able to successfully do so in the retail space.
Well, my estimates put the PS4 at ~22.25 million and XB1 at ~11.75 million. But not everyone is going to agree with this and I don't blame them. It's Microsoft's fault for being so vague
Besides, where is the fun without discussions?
Welfare
Member
By the end of April, where is the PS4 selling an additional 2.2-2.8m from the beginning of March? This is a case of you overestimating the PS4 just because "Xbox ROTW must be bad".
By the end of April, US + UK is ~8.6m.
By the end of 2013, subtracting the US + UK, the Xbox One sold 819k. That would equal ~9.4m
In just 2014, Germany and France sold 231k and 290k respectively. Now the Xbox One is ~10 million. Quickly adding in the extra 47k sold in Germany in 2015 between January and March and Japan's LTD as of April 26 (50,618) to equal ~10.1m
So out of 42 countries, we have up to data on 3 (US, UK, Japan), almost up to date data on 2 countries (Germany missing April, France missing 2015), out of date data on 8 Tier 1 countries dating 16 months ago, and no data on 28 countries where we are missing 8 months of data on.
How the hell is the Xbox One only selling 1.4m in 8 countries over a span of 16 months and 28 countries over the span of 8?
You got it right most people around here may hate cod for what it became but cod on its own made consoles sales jump high and if this gen we font get a "cod" to drive sales we will see a huge break on total sales at a 6year point from 270m to what they calling for 110m
ethomaz
Banned
Doing a better estimate for the split...
- PS4 sold 1.7m in 2 months... avg. 850k per month
- PS4 had Bloodborne in March that is a 5 week month
- April is a slow month
20.2m as of end of Feb
+900k March
+700k April
21.8m as of end of April.
This is my minimum for PS4 and if BB did better it could be higher.
PS4 minimum: 21.8m
Xbone maximum: 12.2m
My guesstimations.
- PS4 sold 1.7m in 2 months... avg. 850k per month
- PS4 had Bloodborne in March that is a 5 week month
- April is a slow month
20.2m as of end of Feb
+900k March
+700k April
21.8m as of end of April.
This is my minimum for PS4 and if BB did better it could be higher.
PS4 minimum: 21.8m
Xbone maximum: 12.2m
My guesstimations.
CosmicQueso
Member
Wii cross-ownership was very high with households that owned either a PS3 or X360 as well. Perhaps households that bought 2 consoles last gen are only buying 1 this gen, which is also impacting the comparisons?
Would be very interesting to dig up the number of households that owned one or more of the last gen boxes compared to number of households that bought one of the new boxes. The dip in households likely wouldn't be as large a % as the dip in total hardware sales.
Fair enough, excellent points.
Would be very interesting to dig up the number of households that owned one or more of the last gen boxes compared to number of households that bought one of the new boxes. The dip in households likely wouldn't be as large a % as the dip in total hardware sales.
Fair enough, excellent points.
Well, when I said "casual" I wasn't talking about people who only play FIFA, Madden, CoD, etc,... I was talking about people who simply aren't into games at all, but were fascinated by the Wii or Rock Band for example. I just couldn't think of a better term. Occasional gamers? I dunno.
There are literally millions of people that would never actively seek out and buy a console or install Steam, but they play Candy Crush and shit on their phone or tablet.
And I never said that the Wii audience leaving affected the PS4/XBO. What I'm saying is that that audience leaving did however affect the total sales of all consoles this gen. Those people were never interested in buying the PS4 or XBO, but they were interested in the Wii, balance board, Rock Band, etc,...