Reporting from Washington—As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don't believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.

A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.

The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.

Although Iran continues to enrich uranium at low levels, U.S. officials say they have not seen evidence that has caused them to significantly revise that judgment. Senior U.S. officials say Israel does not dispute the basic intelligence or analysis.

But Israel appears to have a lower threshold for action than Washington. It regards Iran as a threat to its existence and says it will not allow Iran to become capable of building and delivering a nuclear weapon. Some Israeli officials have raised the prospect of a military strike to stop Iran before it's too late.

It's unclear how much access U.S. intelligence has in Iran, a problem that bedeviled efforts to determine whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

The assessment that Saddam Hussein had secretly amassed stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons and was seeking to build a nuclear weapon, cited by the George W. Bush administration to justify the invasion, turned out to be wrong.

Iran barred inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog group, from visiting Parchin, a military site, this week to determine whether explosives tests were aimed at developing nuclear technology.

An IAEA report in November cited "serious concerns" about "possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," but did not reach hard conclusions. Another IAEA report is imminent.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted Wednesday that Tehran had no intention of producing nuclear weapons. In remarks broadcast on state television, he said that "owning a nuclear weapon is a big sin."

But he said that "pressure, sanctions and assassinations" would not stop Iran from producing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

The U.S. and European Union have imposed strict sanctions on Iran's oil and banking sectors, and unidentified assassins on motorcycles have killed several nuclear scientists in Iran, attacks for which Tehran has blamed Israel.

For now, U.S. military and intelligence officials say they don't believe Iran's leadership has made the decision to build a bomb.

"I think they are keeping themselves in a position to make that decision," James R. Clapper Jr., director of National Intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Feb. 16. "But there are certain things they have not yet done and have not done for some time."

Clapper and CIA Director David H. Petraeus told a separate Senate hearing that Iran was enriching uranium below 20% purity. Uranium is considered weapons grade when it is enriched to about 90% purity, although it is still potentially usable at lower enrichment levels.

U.S. spy agencies also have not seen evidence of a decision-making structure on nuclear weapons around Khamenei, said David Albright, who heads the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security and is an expert on Iran's nuclear program.

Continued- http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-intel-20120224,0,5827032.story

Click to expand...

Ushojax said:

Didn't stop the Iraq War.

Click to expand...

JokerOfSpades said:

And if they knew, they would absolutely tell us.

...

Click to expand...

AB12 said:

The US was bombing others before Bush.

Click to expand...

R2D4 said:

How about we don't bomb Iran until they bomb us? Like the good old days before Bush became president.

Click to expand...

R2D4 said:

I should have said "invading countries".

Click to expand...

The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.

Click to expand...

marrec said:

So they want to know how to build a bomb, but haven't decided to build a bomb yet.

I trust em not to.

Click to expand...

shinobi602 said:

Nice word twisting there. The research they're conducting doesn't show they want to build a weapon out of it, but ultimately they could have that capability, as that comes with having the technical proficiency to build and maintain nuclear plants. So they're not allowed to have nuclear plants?

If I know how to drill metal out of the Earth, concentrate its purity and melt it and form it into different things, one could technically build a gun out of that.

Click to expand...

shinobi602 said:

Nice word twisting there. The research they're conducting doesn't show they want to build a weapon out of it, but ultimately they could have that capability, as that comes with having the technical proficiency to build and maintain nuclear plants. So they're not allowed to have nuclear plants?

If I know how to drill metal out of the Earth, concentrate its purity and melt it and form it into different things, one could technically build a gun out of that. You see where I'm going with this.

Click to expand...

marrec said:

That's not at all what the report says, you're extracting metal example is an absurd example. They want to know the specifics about building a bomb and enriching the material needed. They aren't, as your example would suggest, just now looking into Einsteins mass equation.

Click to expand...

shinobi602 said:

You can't strip rights away from someone because they could do something bad with it.

Click to expand...

JGS said:

How can anyone think that Iran is not trying to get people to think they are trying to build a bomb at this point?

Still should be a cause for concern. It doesn't mean a pre-emptive strike is needed.

Click to expand...