It's not new. Bernie supporters have been doxxing and harassing and threatening Clinton supporters and super delegates for months now.
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National polling data indicating that Trump is closing the gap.
- Thread starter Team Alucard
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It's not new. Bernie supporters have been doxxing and harassing and threatening Clinton supporters and super delegates for months now.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Thats what happens when they use the same tactics and make the same misogynist comments on Reddit.
Karsticles
Member
I don't think this matters until the first debate.
That's the conundrum. The GOP's social conservative base is increasingly shrinking, but pivoting to the middle will alienate these loyal far-right voters.
If the GOP does survive throughout this century, they're going to have to turn into the Democratic party circa 1992. The far-right positions they advocate for simply aren't viable, and the voters who want this are a dwindling demographic.
Calamari41
41 > 38
This is close enough to where a wild card event between now and November could swing this over to Trump. Anything from (god forbid) a terrorist attack to a simple coughing fit during a debate could flip the script on this whole thing. The cushion will need to get to above 5% for it to be a "sure thing" again.
Lord_Byron28
Member
While it is worrisome how close Trump is getting to Hillary. Once the Democratic primaries are over and she focuses her attention on the GE her numbers should rise.
JordanN
Banned
Havoc2049
Member
Cruz ran to the right of Trump and his supporters will get behind Trump.
The never-Trump crowd was small to begin with and was never a movement and the backlash against the never-Trumpers by the majority of Republicans is real. The National Review is dying and Glenn Beck just laid off 40% of his staff in a second round of layoffs. The only thing the never-Trumpers are good at is burning through boat loads of cash with nothing to show for it.
With Trump only spending like 37 million of his own money and like 9 million from doners to lay wast to 16 other high level Republicans in the Republican Primary and to be only a few percentage points behind Clinton at this stage in the game is nothing short of amazing.
Team Alucard
Banned
+11 over Romney's performance would be 70% of the white vote. Trump getting even close to 70% of the white vote would lead to a huge blow-out victory even if you gave Hillary literally 100% of the black, hispanic, and asian vote.
+11 over Romney's performance would be 70% of the white vote. Trump getting even close to 70% of the white vote would lead to a huge blow-out victory even if you gave Hillary literally 100% of the black, hispanic, and asian vote.
He'll get more traditional dem white votes and retain Republican white votes.
Am quite surprised according to wiki the 2012 turnout was just less than 55%? What are US turnouts usually like?
This truly is the lightest timeline.
The first debate isn't going to dislodge the near-unanimous minority vote for the Dems.
Trump has to outperform Romney among white people by a huge margin in order to win, a level that's basically impossible to get.
1st point: I hear you on that. I've been having that conversation myself.
2nd point: This is where we disagree. I feel it has been very clear that there is a real effort to suppress the Sanders supporters. The mess that just went down in Nevada over the weekend is recent proof of that. I also believe the media has been pushing a very pro-Clinton narrative for several months. Every time Sanders has won a state, you can count on seeing numerous headlines to the tune of "Sanders won X but it doesn't really matter". How about a narrative that talks about people's willingness to support him in the face of his overwhelming odds? How about some real discussion of his policies in a way that doesn't fudge the numbers or make assumptions? Washington Post ran 16 negative stories about Sanders in one 16-hour period. Tell me that was unintentional. And that's just one example. People tout that NY Daily News interview as if it is the gospel, but they're a rag and they've always been a rag. Now suddenly they're credible?
I can point to last weekend in Nevada as another example. The media sat silent all weekend about it, despite that there were phone videos from people at the event, clearly showing Lange pretend to take a vote before banging the gavel and storming off stage. Come Monday, the story becomes one about "Violent Sanders supporters" throwing chairs among other things because they lost the vote. There were cops lined up along the stage, how come nobody got arrested? Where was the violence? People were definitely upset, but they were cheated, plain and simple. Registration for that event closed at 10:00 yet the voting took place at 9:30. People who had the proper paperwork in hand were ignored and told they couldn't be counted. Where was the media on that stuff?
I'm sure there are people all too happy to call me some kind of tinfoil hat goofball, but the truth is that there really has been an effort to suppress those who want to support Sanders. Its bad enough we've been told that we're: A) killing the democratic party! B) responsible for President Trump! C) Not smart enough to realize how wrong we are! but on top of that we get closed polling stations, a media that works against us, and suspicious activity that looks a lot like voter fraud (Arizona, New York, now Nevada) and we're supposed to just sit down, be quiet, and bow our heads to "YASSS QUEEN"?
No, sir. That's not what this process is supposed to be about. We can have a vote, you can disagree with us, and we can certainly lose, but it has to be a fair loss. Don't tell us the deck isn't stacked when we can't see over it. We know better. We at least want that to be acknowledged.
BlastProcessing
Member
Traditionally polls start to matter at the conventions and crystallize after the first debate.
friskykillface
Banned
nothing stops the trump train
whyamihere
Banned
+11 over Romney's performance would be 70% of the white vote. Trump getting even close to 70% of the white vote would lead to a huge blow-out victory even if you gave Hillary literally 100% of the black, hispanic, and asian vote.
iirc, this doesn't discern a difference between, say, Midwestern Whites and Southern Whites.
excelsiorlef
Member
Why the hell did you list everything that happened under Bush and then blame the Clintons lol.
Team Alucard
Banned
I actually believe it does, at least to a certain extent.
Otherwise Oregon (83% white) wouldn't be shown as an ever-so-slightly leaning red state while Oklahoma (72% white) is shown as a hard red state.
Oregon would be even more red than Oklahoma if the tool treated all white voters equally.
whyamihere
Banned
Well that's because it's differentiates them as "college educated" versus "non-college educated", but doesn't do any differentiation besides that.
But I don't know the minutia of their model.
EDIT: I guess it does because it still has VT and WA as blue. My mistake. Though I'd be curious to see how thorough these state-level differences are.
Be fair now. The middle class crumbling was Reaganomics at work.
Future off-topic.
9/10
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
Your theme just got 5 shades lighter!
gutter_trash
Banned
W had one of the best numbers among Latinos for any Republican
Trump pissed all that away
whyamihere
Banned
Wait, I'm sorry, but I'm a bit confused: Arizona wouldn't have been able to close as many polling stations if the VRA wasn't gutted. The areas that the polling stations were closed in were generally with high levels of Hispanic voters, areas in which Hillary does better in than Bernie. The polling stations were also, iirc, not set up by the Democratic Party, but the state (which is run almost uniformly by Republicans, as was the county in which most of this took place in).
How is the DNC/Hillary responsible for what happened in Arizona? And wouldn't the lack of polling stations have hurt Hillary the most, since they were in areas in which she does better in?
How is the DNC/Hillary responsible for what happened in Arizona? And wouldn't the lack of polling stations have hurt Hillary the most, since they were in areas in which she does better in?
Spring Drive
Banned
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The reason liberals are hand-wringing is that they have short memories and a narrow understanding of the ebb and flow of election news cycles.
An even moderately decent GOP candidate would be polling like 5 points up on Hillary right now (that doesn't mean he would win in November, either).
Elfforkusu
Member
Among Democrats only
See:
And also the fact that a) Even if every voter that was purged from the records in New York voted for Bernie it wouldn't have made a difference, and b) Those voters were in areas that favored Hillary iirc (in New York City rather than the other parts of the state)
So no, there is no grand conspiracy to disenfranchise Bernie.
You realize that she won the majority of open primaries, right?
55% is roughly average in a GE for a year when the president is on the ballot. For a year where federal offices but not the presidency is on the ballot (a midterm), it'd be closer to 35%.
It just gets worse past that.
whyamihere
Banned
But a lot of those were in the South. Low information voters.
BotoxAgent
Member
don't forget FRAUD!!
Your point on Arizona is well addressed above but on Nevada, how were voters suppressed? The state convention apportioned delegates exactly how the popular vote turned out.
This is why you won't get "acknowledgment". The point is so muddled and confused that it's incoherent. No votes were suppressed...the Nevada complaint is about process. Bernies campaign was trying to squeeze out extra delegates!
I want everyone to come around to Hillary. Really. If people don't, I'm okay with that. I get people don't like her. But the accusations of corruption about the process don't generally come off as grounded in reality and really break discussion.
excelsiorlef
Member
That too.
Thats quite surprising. Not sure why people decry stats and demographics as giving the Dems a win no matter what when there is such a big missing group.
UnemployedVillain
Member
This
whyamihere
Banned
I'm a bit sick of the need to constantly delegitimize every single contest that Hillary wins.
Netherscourge
Banned
NJ elected Chris Christie for governor - TWICE.
rokkerkory
Member
exmachina64
Banned
Ninja Scooter
Member
all it takes is a little of your own education instead of "feelings" to quell your fears and see that a path to a Trump presidency is not at all likely.
yanipheonu
Member
My friend had a grandmother who passed away recently. Her actual final words were: "If Trump wins, I'm coming back."
exmachina64
Banned
To kill us all?
Shy Fingers
Banned
Is that a threat?
Gabriel_Logan
Member
The prune that was promised
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