• Register
  • TOS
  • Privacy
  • @NeoGAF
  • Like

Vic
Please help me with my bad english
(05-17-2017, 03:56 PM)
Mediocre numbers for the Switch. Both for the US and Japan.
Chris1964
Sales-Age Genius
(05-17-2017, 03:57 PM)
Even with digital and limited edition from Nintendo Store this FE will have a hard time matching the LTD of previous 2 DS remakes.
ZSaberLink
Member
(05-17-2017, 03:57 PM)
ZSaberLink's Avatar

Originally Posted by Principate

Nintendo's supply chain management is horrendous.

Yeh no kidding...

Originally Posted by Cheesemeister

At this rate, MK8D will overtake BOTW in less than 2 weeks.

According to Dengeki it already has (although Dengeki's #s for MK8D are weirdly inflated...).
extralite
Member
(05-17-2017, 03:58 PM)
extralite's Avatar
The best guess I could come up for the low shipment would be that GW also affected the manufacturing chain. People got vacation so less Switches were assembled.
Licas1355
Member
(05-17-2017, 03:59 PM)
Licas1355's Avatar
What a terrible week
JonnyDBrit
Member
(05-17-2017, 03:59 PM)
JonnyDBrit's Avatar

Originally Posted by thestopsign

No? It is going to need a sustained shot of supply maybe. I don't think it is lacking in demand quite yet.

Also this is why I think it'll be tough for Zelda to hit a million. We will see if it goes back up with more Switch supply, but I think it will be losing steam because of weeks like this.

The intent of the pun was more a burst of supply for the sake of the ARMS release. Obviously the demand is there, but for whatever reason - whether deliberate, incompetence or longer term scheduling - Nintendo isn't meeting it, and needs to do so by their next releases.
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(05-17-2017, 04:00 PM)
schuelma's Avatar
Not that this would directly be related to Japan, but the whole let's airship supply for launch month might have had an overall impact on supply plans for the short term.
Crom
Junior Member
(05-17-2017, 04:02 PM)
Crom's Avatar

Originally Posted by Licas1355

What a terrible week

What a terrible week to have supply constraints

-Simon Belmont
L~A
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:02 PM)
L~A's Avatar

Originally Posted by Shizuka

On par with the visual novel genre.

You got a point here, still pretty underwhelmed by those sales.

Originally Posted by ggx2ac

I still don't like this title:

Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death

It's as though it's stating the obvious, like if Nintendo decided to call their next Mario title:

Super Mario: Jump on Platforms

Well, the Escape in the title is a reference to Room Escape games, not just "escaping death".

Regarding Nintendo Switch sales/shipments, not expecting much until ARMS is out. Expecting weekly 20-30k until then.
ShinUltramanJ
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:05 PM)
ShinUltramanJ's Avatar
Oh boy...is the party over?
Rymuth
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:07 PM)
Rymuth's Avatar

Originally Posted by Calm Mind

'Escape From Certain Death' indeed.

The irony is perfect, its almost planned
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:08 PM)

Originally Posted by L~A

Well, the Escape in the title is a reference to Room Escape games, not just "escaping death".

I never knew it was an escape room visual novel game until now. I thought it was just another action game like the others they already made.
Possumowner
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:09 PM)
Possumowner's Avatar
Well pretty much everything back down with a bump.
Fdkn
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:12 PM)
Fdkn's Avatar

Originally Posted by Aostia

You can't sell bad if you're sold out

Last thread people were mocking PSVR sales and it was sold out, heh.
hiska-kun
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:13 PM)
hiska-kun's Avatar

Originally Posted by Moor-Angol

so why they just shipped 25k when usually they shipped 40k ?


those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished


Famicon Mini sold 580k in Japan in 2016.
It was the best selling system on Christmas after 3DS.

FW and LTD sales up to 1st of January 2017

Famicom Mini - 261.381 / 580.847
PlayStation 4 Pro - 65.285 / 130.811
PlayStation VR - 51.644 / 77.332
noshten
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:15 PM)
noshten's Avatar

Originally Posted by Moor-Angol

those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished

Are you talking about PSVR or Switch?
Zedark
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:20 PM)
Zedark's Avatar

Originally Posted by Moor-Angol

so why they just shipped 25k when usually they shipped 40k ?


those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished

Way to just ignore all the dynamics surrounding creating stock. Instead of artificial scarcity bullshit, you could consider the alternative view that Nintendo just suck big time at anticipating demand and therefore are always over- or undershipping:

- Gamecube sold bad, so they undershipped for Wii;
- Wii sold well, so they ended up massively overshipping for Wii U;
- Now they are undershipping for Switch, after bad sales from Wii U.

This a much more logical explanation than artificial scarcity, which damages the install base size and software sales numbers as well.
L~A
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:21 PM)
L~A's Avatar

Originally Posted by ggx2ac

I never knew it was an escape room visual novel game until now. I thought it was just another action game like the others they already made.

Koei-Tecmo only made one other AoT game, on PS (and that one was indeed an action game). The previous one was from Spike-Chunsoft, also an action game (ended up selling a damn lot, for what it is).

I guess they were aiming for a much more casual audience + women this time.
The Horror the horror
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:25 PM)
The Horror the horror's Avatar

Originally Posted by Zedark

Way to just ignore all the dynamics surrounding creating stock. Instead of artificial scarcity bullshit, you could consider the alternative view that Nintendo just suck big time at anticipating demand and therefore are always over- or undershipping:

- Gamecube sold bad, so they undershipped for Wii;
- Wii sold well, so they ended up massively overshipping for Wii U;
- Now they are undershipping for Switch, after bad sales from Wii U.

Except this is a Nintendo handheld device, not a traditional home console.

They should have known better.
Zedark
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:27 PM)
Zedark's Avatar

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Except this is a Nintendo handheld device, not a traditional home console.

They should have known better.

Absolutely agree with you there. However I think they do regard it as a console, or at least firmly believed the market would see it as such, and made all their faulty predictions from there. Reflects poorly on their prediction skills, for sure.
Emhemed
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:27 PM)
Emhemed's Avatar
BOTW should reach 600k in 2-3 weeks, can't see it breaking a million but it will come close.
Chris1964
Sales-Age Genius
(05-17-2017, 04:29 PM)

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Except this is a Nintendo handheld device, not a traditional home console.

They should have known better.

Last time I checked 3DS was a handheld too.
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:29 PM)

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Except this is a Nintendo handheld device, not a traditional home console.

They should have known better.

The 3DS was overshipped and bombed after launch too.

Switch $300 'handheld' Vs 3DS $250 handheld.

It's not exactly a generalisation that can be made.
Instro
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:29 PM)
Instro's Avatar

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Except this is a Nintendo handheld device, not a traditional home console.

They should have known better.

Except the 3DS was also overshipped during its first year until they slashed the price.
The Horror the horror
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:33 PM)
The Horror the horror's Avatar

Originally Posted by Zedark

Absolutely agree with you there. However I think they do regard it as a console, or at least firmly believed the market would see it as such, and made all their faulty predictions from there. Reflects poorly on their prediction skills, for sure.

Furthermore, what's the harm in overestimating demand and over-supplying in these early stages of the system's life? Say they flood the markets with Switches and no one's in the rush to buy them. Nintendo could always scale back production in response and the glut of Switches in the wild will sell off eventually.
D.Lo
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:38 PM)
D.Lo's Avatar

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Furthermore, what's the harm in overestimating demand and over-supplying in these early stages of the system's life? Say they flood the markets with Switches and no one's in the rush to buy them. Nintendo could always scale back production in response and the glut of Switches in the wild will sell off eventually.

Just like you can't ramp up production quickly without exponential growth of your costs, you cannot scale back production without wasting sunk cost either.

There is not a line of switch making machines that can simply have the switch flicked to 'double speed'. Extra production means more lines of production. Ramping it down means mothballing or dismantling lines of production. The latter is to be avoided whenever possible because it's pure waste.
Zedark
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:38 PM)
Zedark's Avatar

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Furthermore, what's the harm in overestimating demand and over-supplying in these early stages of the system's life? Say they flood the markets with Switches and no one's in the rush to buy them. Nintendo could always scale back production in response and the glut of Switches in the wild will sell off eventually.

There's still a certain amount of the product that retailers will take at a certain time. If you overship way too much (like what happened with the Wii U), you run the risk of having to store significant amounts of units in warehouse for prolonged periods of time, and in extreme cases may even have to buy units back from retailers (all this happened with Wii U). Combine this scenario that they definitely don't want with an underappreciation of the potential of the Switch, and that's how you get undershipments for a system. They already said they would ramp up production, so hopefully they are ramping up enough so that in the course of June/July a significantly improved supply situation has been created.
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:38 PM)

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Furthermore, what's the harm in overestimating demand and over-supplying in these early stages of the system's life? Say they flood the markets with Switches and no one's in the rush to buy them. Nintendo could always scale back production in response and the glut of Switches in the wild will sell off eventually.

Nintendo don't use warehouses to store unsold stock, they ended up paying retailers to keep Wii U stock on shelves instead of having them return it to Nintendo.

That causes Nintendo to lose money however, you might wanna check how much money THQ lost from storing unsold stock of the Udraw in warehouses before you suggest Nintendo should store their unsold stock in warehouses.
Arynio
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:40 PM)
Arynio's Avatar

Originally Posted by Emhemed

BOTW should reach 600k in 2-3 weeks, can't see it breaking a million but it will come close.

You mean retail Switch + WiiU BOTW, right? Because with digital, it's already well over 600k.

By the way, do we have Famitsu's digital estimates for April?
L~A
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:40 PM)
L~A's Avatar
So, Breath of the Wild is currently at 574 491 (Switch + Wii U). Guess it's going to hit 600k this month/early June. It's already there with digital, though.
Instro
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:42 PM)
Instro's Avatar

Originally Posted by The Horror the horror

Furthermore, what's the harm in overestimating demand and over-supplying in these early stages of the system's life? Say they flood the markets with Switches and no one's in the rush to buy them. Nintendo could always scale back production in response and the glut of Switches in the wild will sell off eventually.

It's costly to store excess units, damages retail relationships, causes retailers to demand the producer to buy back units or run promotions, etc. The Xbox One is a prime example of having to deal with an overshipped product. You can't just lower production like that either, it's no easier than increasing production.
Passose
Banned
(05-17-2017, 04:42 PM)

Originally Posted by ggx2ac

Nintendo don't use warehouses to store unsold stock, they ended up paying retailers to keep Wii U stock on shelves instead of having them return it to Nintendo.

That causes Nintendo to lose money, you might wanna check how much money THQ lost from storing unsold stock of the Udraw in warehouses before you suggest Nintendo store their unsold stock in warehouses.

wait, really? I thought hey has been using warehouses like other companies
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:44 PM)

Originally Posted by Passose

wait, really? I thought hey has been using warehouses like other companies

They have inventory but it's not the same thing as having warehouses to store unsold stuff they already shipped.

Imagine how costly it would be for them to have warehouses across the Americas and Europe to store unsold stock that was returned to them because retailers couldn't sell it.
random25
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:47 PM)
random25's Avatar

Originally Posted by L~A

So, Breath of the Wild is currently at 574 491 (Switch + Wii U). Guess it's going to hit 600k this month/early June. It's already there with digital, though.

Just a little above 400k before a million!

Good that it still has legs. Hopefully the Arms and Splatoon releases (as well as Switch selling more than right now) reinvigorates it.
ksamedi
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:48 PM)
ksamedi's Avatar
Low sales overall but Im guessing the Switch is low because of low stock. Its not like you can walk in a store and find one easily.

Looking at the 3DS sales, it probably has one good year left in it but I fully expect Nintendo to release a next generation handheld next year. Maybe it will share features and architecture from the Swith but it doesnt necessarily have to. There is a market for handhelds as well. Looking at how stacked the Switch line up already is for Nintendo, it would be a mistake to only support the Switch going forward. They have too many development teams/partners to only focus on one device.
Skittzo0413
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:49 PM)
Skittzo0413's Avatar

Originally Posted by ggx2ac

They have inventory but it's not the same thing as having warehouses to store unsold stuff they already shipped.

Imagine how costly it would be for them to have warehouses across the Americas and Europe to store unsold stock that was returned to them because retailers couldn't sell it.

Yeah, which is exactly why they had their first loss in decades the year after the Wii U came out.

I would imagine though that they're holding a percentage of produced Switches so that they can distribute them during the holidays this year.
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:51 PM)

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

Yeah, which is exactly why they had their first loss in decades the year after the Wii U came out.

I would imagine though that they're holding a percentage of produced Switches so that they can distribute them during the holidays this year.

I think you got the wrong year.

Their first financial loss in decades was due to trying to save the 3DS by doing the huge price cut which caused them to have a net loss because people weren't buying enough software to make up for the difference.

Wii U didn't cause them a financial loss because by then because the 3DS was barely keeping Nintendo afloat.
darkstar0155
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:54 PM)

Originally Posted by Emhemed

BOTW should reach 600k in 2-3 weeks, can't see it breaking a million but it will come close.

Its selling 1 copy for about every 2 switches sold. Hard to see how it wont break 1 million eventually.
The Horror the horror
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:54 PM)
The Horror the horror's Avatar

Originally Posted by D.Lo

Just like you can't ramp up production quickly without exponential growth of your costs, you cannot scale back production without wasting sunk cost either.

There is not a line of switch making machines that can simply have the switch flicked to 'double speed'. Extra production means more lines of production. Ramping it down means mothballing or dismantling lines of production. The latter is to be avoided whenever possible because it's pure waste.

Gotcha.

Guess it's damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Interfectum
Member
(05-17-2017, 04:54 PM)
Interfectum's Avatar
Any guesses on what Sony's long term plan for Japan is? Just give it to Switch?

PSE? :)
Madao
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:06 PM)
Madao's Avatar
the Wii U really made Nintendo's supply chain go into an ultra conservative mode that they are having trouble reverting on time with the explosive Switch demand.

at least on the Wii days you could say their supply was the best it was possible since it was outpacing even the PS2 but these sales don't seem that high.
Skittzo0413
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:10 PM)
Skittzo0413's Avatar

Originally Posted by ggx2ac

I think you got the wrong year.

Their first financial loss in decades was due to trying to save the 3DS by doing the huge price cut which caused them to have a net loss because people weren't buying enough software to make up for the difference.

Wii U didn't cause them a financial loss because by then because the 3DS was barely keeping Nintendo afloat.

I thought the year ending March 2014 was their big loss, and it had a fair bit to do with storing the unsold Wii U consoles. I could very well be remembering wrong.

Maybe the year ending March 2013 was their first loss but 2014 also saw a loss?

Originally Posted by Madao

the Wii U really made Nintendo's supply chain go into an ultra conservative mode that they are having trouble reverting on time with the explosive Switch demand.

at least on the Wii days you could say their supply was the best it was possible since it was outpacing even the PS2 but these sales don't seem that high.

It should be fairly close to Wii numbers right now worldwide, without the benefit of a holiday season. I don't think anything could compare back to the Wii or PS2 in Japan these days, but the numbers really aren't that bad overall.
L~A
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:11 PM)
L~A's Avatar
Nintendo 3DS games once again stable, pretty impressive. I guess Summer holidays will be the first real test for YoY comparison, since Q1 and Q2 are usually low.

New Nintendo 2DS XL + Dragon Quest XI are going to make comparisons interesting. Last year, Pokémon GO didn't have too much of an impact (compared to the west, that is).
Emhemed
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:13 PM)
Emhemed's Avatar

Originally Posted by Arynio

You mean retail Switch + WiiU BOTW, right? Because with digital, it's already well over 600k.

By the way, do we have Famitsu's digital estimates for April?

Yeah only retail.

Its selling 1 copy for about every 2 switches sold. Hard to see how it wont break 1 million eventually

The game has a brilliant attach rate so far but I fear with Arms and Splatoon 2 coming out soon the attach rate will start to decrease.
Celine
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:15 PM)
Celine's Avatar

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

I thought the year ending March 2014 was their big loss, and it had a fair bit to do with storing the unsold Wii U consoles. I could very well be remembering wrong.

Maybe the year ending March 2013 was their first loss but 2014 also saw a loss?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963700
Passose
Banned
(05-17-2017, 05:15 PM)

Originally Posted by Interfectum

Any guesses on what Sony's long term plan for Japan is? Just give it to Switch?

PSE? :)

with 4k gaming on the go, also with 4k Rumble
DrWong
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:15 PM)
DrWong's Avatar

Originally Posted by Emhemed

Yeah only retail.



The game has a brilliant attach rate so far but I fear with Arms and Splatoon 2 coming out soon the attach rate will start to decrease.

Those are multiplayer focused games, Zelda is the perfect complementary game.
darkstar0155
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:16 PM)

Originally Posted by Emhemed

Yeah only retail.



The game has a brilliant attach rate so far but I fear with Arms and Splatoon 2 coming out soon the attach rate will start to decrease.

I just don't see it. If MK8D which many thought would affect it, didn't do it, I doubt Arms will. Maybe SP2 but there really isn't another good long single player game outside of BotW. MK8D/Arms/SP2 all feed the multiplayer market, but nothing other than BotW fills the single player market.
Skittzo0413
Member
(05-17-2017, 05:17 PM)
Skittzo0413's Avatar

Originally Posted by Celine

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963700

Somehow I keep forgetting to subscribe to that thread, thanks!
sinonobu
Banned
(05-17-2017, 05:17 PM)

Originally Posted by Interfectum

Any guesses on what Sony's long term plan for Japan is? Just give it to Switch?

PSE? :)

PSE with Pokemon Stars/MH5/YW as launch titles...!

Play Playstation games on the go!

Thread Tools