• Register
  • TOS
  • Privacy
  • @NeoGAF
  • Like

cheesekao
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:11 PM)
cheesekao's Avatar

Originally Posted by Vena

Golden Week/MK8D launch.

People were saying Ninendo ramped up production and/or retailers held back stock for MK8 launch week and GW sales isn't really that different from before.
Zedark
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:12 PM)
Zedark's Avatar

Originally Posted by cheesekao

Even if the Switch is indeed supply constrained, why is it not around the 40k~ish mark like before? If I had to guess, I'd say that they moved some stock somewhere else but for what reason?

Perhaps they had planned low shipments for this week for Japan because of the post-Golden Week drops? Which would mean that they always planned to ship low numbers, despite it seemingly not being necessary due to high demand (whereas they expected it to normalise to this level by now).
Skittzo0413
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:12 PM)
Skittzo0413's Avatar
Starting to get worried that there may indeed be huge production problems, possibly with Japan Display. That would not be good.
Nibel
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:12 PM)
Nibel's Avatar

Originally Posted by hiska-kun

Every post golden week becomes RIP Japan week.

It's a good and necessary tradition

Nintendo better get their shit together before Splatoon 2 takes over the country
Frankfurter
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:13 PM)
Frankfurter's Avatar
Quite surprised that Nintendo apparently couldn't ship the usual 40k+ units to Japan.
Dystify
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:13 PM)
Dystify's Avatar

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

Starting to get worried that there may indeed be huge production problems, possibly with Japan Display. That would not be good.

Does it seem like that? To me it seems more like there are steady shipments that always sell out. It's not that easy / fast to increase production.
JonnyDBrit
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:14 PM)
JonnyDBrit's Avatar

Originally Posted by cheesekao

Even if the Switch is indeed supply constrained, why is it not around the 40k~ish mark like before? If I had to guess, I'd say that they moved some stock somewhere else but for what reason?

I have half a suspicion they're now going to try and hold back some stock as it's produced, so that for new, big releases - such as ARMS and Splatoon - they have a larger supply to ship all at once.
FreedomFighter
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:14 PM)
FreedomFighter's Avatar
Now, what will be awesome, is if we see Switch sales back up to 42k - 47k units again next week.
That means they sold 72.623 Switch in May.

I still expect the shipment to be 200k this month but with only two more weeks unless there is a big boost it looks it will fall behind the target :(

Maybe they are planning to ship only 150k in May? The other explanation could be shipment is higher than demand.
Cheesemeister
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:15 PM)
Cheesemeister's Avatar
At this rate, MK8D will overtake BOTW in less than 2 weeks.
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:16 PM)
ggx2ac's Avatar
It makes sense as to what people are saying that they shipped more for the MK8D launch and didn't have much supply for this week.

If they didn't supply enough for the MK8D launch, then they would have made a lot more 'lost sales' with people buying something else for golden week than to have 40k stock for after golden week ends.
HellBlazer
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:16 PM)
HellBlazer's Avatar
Jesus, Nintendo. When is the increased production supposed to take effect? I hope this isn't it...
Skittzo0413
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:17 PM)
Skittzo0413's Avatar

Originally Posted by Dystify

Does it seem like that? To me it seems more like there are steady shipments that always sell out. It's not that easy / fast to increase production.

They were rumored to be doubling their FY production starting in early March. I would've expected we would be seeing those effects by mid May, but apparently not. I guess it could just be taking longer than I thought but it's at least an issue we should keep our eyes on.

Originally Posted by HellBlazer

Jesus, Nintendo. When is the increased production supposed to take effect? I hope this isn't it...

I know Nintendo said they will try to increase production but the 10m forecast shows the actual shipment is what they planned.

Unless they up the 10m forecas I don't believe in production increase before holidays.

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

They were rumored to be doubling their FY production starting in early March. I would've expected we would be seeing those effects by mid May, but apparently not. I guess it could just be taking longer than I thought but it's at least an issue we should keep our eyes on.

Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?
Gotdatmoney
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:18 PM)

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

Starting to get worried that there may indeed be huge production problems, possibly with Japan Display. That would not be good.

I think it's a little too early to worry about this. Its been 2 1/2 months man.
Kanann
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:22 PM)
Kanann's Avatar
frankie_baby
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:22 PM)
I wonder if the week before being golden week meant there were logistical issues that meant a knock on of low shipment for this week
Skittzo0413
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:22 PM)
Skittzo0413's Avatar

Originally Posted by ethomaz

Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?

The WSJ rumor was 8m originally to 16m. For production, which isn't the same as target shipments.

16m being produced would make sense with a conservative shipping estimate of 10m, but if the 10m is really all they think they can manage then I don't think those numbers add up.

Originally Posted by Gotdatmoney

I think it's a little too early to worry about this. Its been 2 1/2 months man.

True, it's just a worry I've had since hearing about Japan Display's financial issues in general. I think this holiday's shipments will probably be a lot more telling about their production capacity.
Chris1964
Sales-Age Genius
(05-17-2017, 02:23 PM)

Originally Posted by ethomaz

Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?

Do you actually believe what you are typing?
Psycho_Mantis
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:23 PM)
Psycho_Mantis's Avatar
This doesn't look as bad as previous years.....or my memory may be failing
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(05-17-2017, 02:24 PM)
Mpl90's Avatar
While the online stores situation is still of short supply, it'd be great to hear more from Japanese retail stores themselves to get further confirmations about the console's scarcity.

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

The WSJ rumor was 8m originally to 16m. For production, which isn't the same as target shipments.

16m being produced would make sense with a conservative shipping estimate of 10m, but if the 10m is really all they think they can manage then I don't think those numbers add up.

While it is true production is a bit different from shipment... I don't expect a over 2m gap between them.

This 16m looks way off.
Last edited by ethomaz; 05-17-2017 at 06:00 PM.
Vinnk
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:27 PM)
Vinnk's Avatar

Originally Posted by Dystify

Does it seem like that? To me it seems more like there are steady shipments that always sell out. It's not that easy / fast to increase production.

There you go mansplaining again.
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(05-17-2017, 02:29 PM)
Mpl90's Avatar

Originally Posted by Vinnk

There you go mansplaining again.

It's starting to become a meme, I see.
Gotdatmoney
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:29 PM)

Originally Posted by ethomaz

Perhaps the 10m forecast is already the doubled production? They expect 5m before Switch success?

This is one of the silliest things you have ever posted.

Originally Posted by Skittzo0413

True, it's just a worry I've had since hearing about Japan Display's financial issues in general. I think this holiday's shipments will probably be a lot more telling about their production capacity.

We are still in launch window for an underestimated hardware. 75 days is not a long time. Far too little to say anything besides Nintendo should gauge their products better
Vinnk
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:30 PM)
Vinnk's Avatar

Originally Posted by Cheesemeister

At this rate, MK8D will overtake BOTW in less than 2 weeks.

If there trends continue, soon BOTW will have negative sales...

Nice to see you Cheesemeister.
Usobuko
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:30 PM)
Usobuko's Avatar
Those legs of NieR are amazing.

Originally Posted by Nirolak

Now those are the Japanese hardware sales we all know and love.

lmao.
marmoka
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:31 PM)
marmoka's Avatar
Switch is dead.
3DS is dead.
PS4 is dead.

Everyone is dead.

If sales increase next week, beware, it's a zombie invasion.
Moor-Angol
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:31 PM)
Moor-Angol's Avatar

Originally Posted by Mpl90

https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?from=ios

As I said in the other thread, the console is still having shortages problems at least on all the online storefronts (the last update is a few hours ago, so it's extremely recent).

so why they just shipped 25k when usually they shipped 40k ?


those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(05-17-2017, 02:31 PM)
Aostia's Avatar
Switch shortages should be fix ASAP, otherwise we can't properly comment on the MC threads, and it is not fun
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:32 PM)
ggx2ac's Avatar

Originally Posted by Vinnk

There you go mansplaining again.

I laughed.
Shizuka
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:33 PM)
Shizuka's Avatar
Shut it down, japanese gaming is over.
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(05-17-2017, 02:34 PM)
Aostia's Avatar

Originally Posted by Moor-Angol

so why they just shipped 25k when usually they shipped 40k ?


those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini
real shortages were during DSL time, the more nintendo shipped the more they sold; now they just make "fixed" shipments to keep the hype among the consumer cause the line-up is so modest that without those "shortages" the hype would have been already vanished


You can't sell bad if you're sold out

zelas
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:35 PM)
Yeah the US number was troubling in terms of how nintendo was handling stock. This number just reeks of incompetence though. All of their resources, access, and experience and they still cant gauge market demand?
Zedark
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:36 PM)
Zedark's Avatar
hiska-kun
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:38 PM)
hiska-kun's Avatar
PS4 VS PS3

Code:

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
| 167|   35.156|4.598.114|   25.303|4.704.526|       106.412| 
| 168|   26.966|4.625.080|   27.954|4.732.481|       107.401| 
| 169|   34.431|4.659.511|   17.295|4.749.776|        90.265|
| 170|   25.450|4.684.961|         |         |              |
| 171|   24.811|4.709.772|         |         |              |
| 172|   32.130|4.741.902|         |         |              |
| 173|   27.763|4.769.665|         |         |              |
| 174|   28.824|4.798.489|         |         |              |
| 175|   26.481|4.824.970|         |         |              |
| 176|   50.164|4.875.134|         |         |              |
| 177|   50.448|4.925.582|         |         |              |
| 178|   38.877|4.964.459|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
Switch VS 3DS

Code:

------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |    Nintendo 3DS   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2011/02/26)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - 3DS  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|   9|   23.038|  920.133|   76.679|  777.252|      -142.881|
|  10|   28.413|  948.546|   47.911|  825.163|      -123.383|
|  11|   29.149|  977.695|   24.712|  849.875|      -127.820|
|  12|   18.324|  996.019|         |         |              |
|  13|   17.240|1.013.259|         |         |              |
|  14|   24.283|1.037.542|         |         |              |
|  15|   27.357|1.064.899|         |         |              |
|  16|   24.649|1.089.548|         |         |              |
|  17|   40.649|1.130.197|         |         |              |
|  18|   27.905|1.158.102|         |         |              |
|  19|   30.233|1.188.335|         |         |              |
|  20|   22.943|1.211.278|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
Switch Weekly Sales

Code:

+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  |    3DS   |    PSV   |    WIU   |    PS4   |    NSW   |
|La|2011.02.26|2011.12.17|2012.12.08|2014.02.22|2017.03.03|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|   374.764|   324.859|   308.142|   309.154|   329.152|
| 2|   209.623|    72.479|   126.916|    65.685|    61.998|
| 3|    96.463|    42.648|   122.843|    35.294|    49.913|
| 4|    61.394|    42.915|    69.386|    29.677|    78.441|
| 5|    50.710|    18.361|    67.083|    30.201|    45.509|
| 6|    42.979|    15.219|    20.715|    23.327|    41.193|
| 7|    32.910|    18.942|    16.654|    13.401|    45.673|
| 8|    28.252|    17.141|    13.746|    13.034|    48.694|
| 9|    23.038|    13.939|    12.959|    14.396|    76.679|
|10|    28.413|    12.309|    12.185|    12.712|    47.911|
|11|    29.149|    11.186|    10.744|    11.486|    24.712|
|12|    18.324|    10.023|     9.633|     8.480|          |
|13|    17.240|    10.041|    10.021|     6.792|          |
|14|    24.283|    10.021|     9.454|     7.543|          |
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
MK8 Wii U VS MK8D Switch
ArkhamFantasy
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:40 PM)
ArkhamFantasy's Avatar
That shipment is not acceptable for a market as important as japan is to nintendo. They need to fix this.
Celine
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:41 PM)
Celine's Avatar

Originally Posted by Moor-Angol

those shortages are fake, same as happened with famicom mini

Remember when you said no one would have bought the Famicom Mini in Japan because they could have just bought the original Famicom and the carts?
Good times...
JonnyDBrit
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:42 PM)
JonnyDBrit's Avatar
Switch gonna need a sustained shot up the ARMS if it's going to try and chase crossing 3DS' trajectory, prior to the price drop making that nigh-impossible.
Vinnk
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:44 PM)
Vinnk's Avatar

Originally Posted by ArkhamFantasy

That shipment is not acceptable for a market as important as japan is to nintendo. They need to fix this.

It's not acceptable for the US either. What on earth is going on with Nintendo's supply chain?
llehuty
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:44 PM)
llehuty's Avatar
So, massive heat wave in Japan, then?
thestopsign
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:45 PM)
thestopsign's Avatar

Originally Posted by JonnyDBrit

Switch gonna need a sustained shot up the ARMS if it's going to try and chase crossing 3DS' trajectory, prior to the price drop making that nigh-impossible.

No? It is going to need a sustained shot of supply maybe. I don't think it is lacking in demand quite yet.

Also this is why I think it'll be tough for Zelda to hit a million. We will see if it goes back up with more Switch supply, but I think it will be losing steam because of weeks like this.
Last edited by thestopsign; 05-17-2017 at 02:48 PM.
noshten
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:45 PM)
noshten's Avatar

Originally Posted by zelas

Yeah the US number was troubling in terms of how nintendo was handling stock. This number just reeks of incompetence though. All of their resources, access, and experience and they still cant gauge market demand?

Some people mentioned that they shipped more units to the US launch that might have been allocated for April. Thus the shipment for April/May were effected. In any case MK8D is probably close to 2 million WW at this point so it's not like the "shortage" has hurt the sales of MK8D which is going to be one of the evergreen titles this year.
MK8D will continue to sell as every previous MK entry and has already done much better than the Wii U version at launch.

For April Nintendo sold 50% of Hardware in the US, April is generally a slow month and if Switch had followed 3DS trajectory it would have already be meeting demand in the US. Instead it's far more popular and should remain top selling system in the US for the entire summer with ease.
In any case having MK8D and Zelda in the top 3 of the NPD even for a slow month like April when Nintendo wasn't even able to stock properly bodes well for both games.
D.Lo
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:46 PM)
D.Lo's Avatar

Originally Posted by ethomaz

While it is true production is a bit different from shipment... I don't expect a over 2m gap between them.

This 16m looks way oof.

You know why they call it 'ramping up production'? Because you cannot instantly double output. You add bandwidth which accelerates output, until you reach your desired velocity.

We're two months in. It's like you expect a Ferrari to have reached 200mph when the accelerator only hit the floor one second ago.
darkstar0155
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:47 PM)
at first I was like "well there goes BotW sales, looks like MK8 affected it after all"... then looked at the hardware sales. Looks like its sticking right around 50% attach rate of new hardware sales.
Salvadora
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:47 PM)
Salvadora's Avatar
24,712 for Switch is a sizeable drop.

I expected 40,000 to at least be maintained.

Come on, Nintendo.
L~A
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:50 PM)
L~A's Avatar
That Attack on Titan did even worse than I was expecting.


Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains - 89 448 FW (Famitsu)

vs

05./00. [3DS] Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) {2017.05.11} (5.800) - 8.599 / NEW (Media Create)


Guess going with an Adventure game on 3DS with original story wasn't KT's best idea, heh.
Last edited by L~A; 05-17-2017 at 02:53 PM.
Augemitbutter
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:51 PM)
Augemitbutter's Avatar
Automata doesn't give a shit about all this depression.
Shizuka
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:51 PM)
Shizuka's Avatar

Originally Posted by L~A

That Attack on Titan did even worse than I was expected.


Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains - 89 448 FW (Famitsu)

vs

05./00. [3DS] Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) {2017.05.11} (5.800) - 8.599 / NEW


Guess going with an Adventure game on 3DS with original story wasn't KT's best idea, heh.

On par with the visual novel genre.
ggx2ac
Member
(05-17-2017, 02:56 PM)
ggx2ac's Avatar
I still don't like this title:

Attack on Titan: Escape from Certain Death

It's as though it's stating the obvious, like if Nintendo decided to call their next Mario title:

Super Mario: Jump on Platforms

Thread Tools