Originally Posted by thepotatoman
Funny how in February 2010, CNN was running a story about how there were already so many announced open seats, with 13 open democratic seats. But 18 republican open seats 4 months earlier in the process is doom and gloom for democrats.
The overall seats in 2010 were much closer in in margins than 2018. So Dems will definitely need more open seats to take back the house. NY Times is not inaccurate in their assessment, not was CNN back in 2010.
If Democrats were to hold all of the seats we rate as leaning towards them, all 12 of the Toss Ups, and half of the seats in Lean Republican — a big ask — they would still fall two seats shy of a majority.
Today, there are 52 Republicans sitting in marginal districts with Cook PVI scores of R+5 or more Democratic — more than twice the number Democrats need. The problem for Democrats is that these tend to be personally popular members: three quarters of them won their 2016 races by double digits, and half of them won by more than 15 points. For the most part, they know how to navigate tough districts and attract independent voters.
Of the 52, just four have announced retirements so far: Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27), Dave Trott (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08). Their retirements have vaulted these seats to the top of Democrats' takeover list. But as the holidays near and retirement season looms, Democrats' chances hinge on how many of the other 48 stick around.
Democrats will definitely need more retirements to have a more favorable shot at winning the house.